Bermuda's 1994 tourism year, once on track to record significant gains over 1993, is sputtering to a disappointing finish.

By all accounts, it appears the year's air arrivals will finish about one percent ahead of 1993.

It will be a far cry from the Minister's boast last February of a 10 percent improvement in air arrivals and a first quarter result that saw them finish 23 percent ahead of the same period last year.

Tourism officials have yet to put together an analysis of the "disappointing year''.

But they believe 1994 was turned into a no-gainer by a summer business boom in Europe followed by a massive American Airlines otel sale in the Caribbean from September to November 19.

"We came up against a lot of competition,'' Tourism Board chairman Mr. Kirk Cooper said. "That's what it basically boiled down to. I don't think we expected it like that.'' Mr. Cooper said 1994 would finish a little bit better than 1993.

"To come out marginally ahead of 1994 is not good, but it's better than being behind.'' Bermuda became aware of out-of-the-ordinary competitive challenges in May of this year when Caribbean hotels joined with American Airlines to launch air otel sale for the fall -- the off-season in the Caribbean.

The sale saw American travel wholesalers and hotels each slash their fares and rates by 35 percent.

"It was a very heavy marketing effort by the Caribbean,'' Mr. Cooper said.

When the sale began in September, Bermuda's air arrivals were four percent ahead of 1993, still within striking distance of Tourism's 1994 goal to be about seven percent up.

After more than two months of the sale, Bermuda's air arrivals are a paltry 1.3 percent ahead of 1993.

Bermuda had an opportunity to join the big sale but decided not to.

"Bermuda was in a tough spot,'' said one overseas travel wholesaler who sells both Bermuda and the Caribbean.

The sale was scheduled during Bermuda's bread-and-butter high season, when it charges higher rates, while the Caribbean in its off-season had nothing to lose with a bargain-basement offerings.

"That was the reason we didn't join,'' said Mr. Peter Smith, Tourism's assistant director for marketing. "It was an off-season promotion.'' Mr. Cooper said Bermuda would never have joined the sale because of the dissimilarities in the products. If Tourism had decided to do something, it would have competed against it.

"But to do that, we would have had to get people to cut their rates dramatically.'' Tourism officials also felt the Island's higher income visitors would not be lured by the sale.

"I don't know whether we misjudged it,'' Mr. Cooper said. "We didn't think it would be quite so popular.'' Mr. Smith acknowledged Bermuda suffered a fall-off in arrivals during the Disappointing finish to 1994 tourism year From Page 1 "the jury is still out as to whether visits to the Caribbean increased a lot.'' Mr. Smith said it was not yet possible to tell whether some islands had increased their business at Bermuda's expense.

Mr. Jeff Tolkin of Travel Impressions, a travel wholesaler, said the Caribbean sale had a very positive impact on sales to the region "which sucked up business from other areas, particularly Florida and Bermuda.'' Mr. Tolkin said Bermuda also lost business to the very mild autumn enjoyed in the US mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.

"It has prompted Bermuda travellers to stay home,'' he said.

Both Mr. Smith and Mr. Cooper said the Island had already been affected by the strong performance of Europe during the summer, when it had hoped to maintain arrival gains upwards of five percent.

Mr. Cooper said business to Europe was up because of more affordable air fares.