predicted by leading experts for this first year of the millennium.

This year's hurricane season is likely to produce 11 storms, three of which are expected to become major hurricanes, Category three or higher on the Saffir Simpson scale.

These predictions come from Professor William Gray and his team of scientists at Colorado State University, who are considered to be at the forefront of seasonal and long term forecasting for hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean basin.

The team's research is based upon a plethora of factors which affect the formation and intensity of storms,Bermuda Weather Station chief, Roger Williams explained.

These include the El Nino/La Nina cycle, variations in the upper stratospheric wind regime, West African rainfall trends and several other factors,Mr.

Williams said. Some of these indicators act positively and some negatively.

Although Professor Gray's team does not attempt to predict individual storm tracks, they do attempt to forecast the probability of one or more major Hurricanes making landfall.

This year they expect the chances to be four percent above the last century average on the Gulf Coast, eight percent above average for Peninsular Florida and the US East Coast and around ten percent above for the Caribbean Basin.

"Professor Gray's assessment was made on April 7. Recent sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data over the tropical Pacific indicated that one of Professor Gray's positive indicators, the La Nina episode, had somewhat diminished since then.'' However there is no justification, at present, to assume that an El Nino event, which would mean less hurricane formation, is likely to occur this year,Mr. Williams said.

"The El Nino, which is associated with warmer than average sea temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, tends to generate westerly winds in the upper atmosphere, over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic,'' he said. The shearing effect of these winds inhibits the formation and development of hurricanes.

However, even in a quite year, Bermuda is still liable to be threatened by a major storm recurring into the mid-Atlantic. For instance early in the September of 1997, Erika, the only major storm of the season had us in the firing line before she finally skirted us to our southeast.

Many homes were wrecked during Hurricanes Gert last year.