difficult winter''. We think there can be little doubt that what is coming will be worse than last winter. Individuals and businesses rode out last winter on savings or borrowings of one kind or another hoping for a good 1992 season. That did not come. The second winter will be tougher if for no other reason than that we have already been hit by one tough winter.

Indications overseas are not good. Housing starts are down again in the United States and those are the basic indicators of recovery. The most optimistic prediction we have heard from the United Kingdom is that there should be some improvement in the spring of 1994. There seems to be general agreement that any improvement will be very gradual indeed. This is "the slump that won't go away'' but we have to remember that the great depression in the United States stretched throughout the 1930s and did not really end until it was artificially concluded by the Second World War.

We think the current recession has marked the end of the carefree and opulent style we enjoyed in Bermuda. We are at the end of easy jobs, automatic salary hikes, and the good life of travel and free and easy spending Bermudians knew in the 1980s. Some of that life was a "fools paradise'' because Bermuda's tourism was already in decline even though that did not show in pay packets.

As long as there was no recession and Americans were spending freely we could raise our prices to meet our own demands. But now there is a recession and Americans have stopped spending freely and may not do so again for many years to come. We can't raise the prices to suit our good life because our customers will not pay.

As Chamber of Commerce President Mr. Louis Mowbray said in a speech on Tuesday, "There is no magic wand to make things better.'' Just as the people do not have a magic wand, Government does not have a magic wand. The recession is beyond Bermuda's control. Indeed, things may well not get better for a long time. We think the gravy days are over and Bermudians are now be called upon to work harder and expect less. It's tough to accept that idea when we have had things so good for so long.

People often ignore history but it is important to remember that the good times of the "Roaring Twenties'' ended in the great depression. The profligate Eighties, which will one day have a catchy name, ended with what we now know as the greatest economic downturn since the great depression.

The truth is that the world we know may not have it so good again as it did in the 1980s. The economy of this tiny island is controlled by forces from outside. What is controlled inside is the way we satisfy visitors who are our customers. We have two problems. A recession we cannot control battering us from outside and too high visitor costs driving people away from inside.

We can't cure the recession because we do not have that magic wand but we can begin to get to work on our internal problems.