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Warwick East: The key to victory

Wavering Warwick East is set up to be one of the keys to power after the General Election dust settles on November 10.

And the volatile seat is bound to play a crucial role in the game plans of both main parties' bid for power.

Warwick East has bounced back and forth between the parties over the years -- and both the United Bermuda Party and the Progressive Labour Party are aiming to capitalise on that.

E.T. (Bob) Richards and Larry Scott, both Senators up until the dissolution of Parliament, are lined up for the UBP after sitting Government MP Irving Pearman announced his retirement from politics earlier this year.

On the PLP side, Home Affairs and Public Safety spokesman Alex Scott, who swapped a Senate seat for one in the Lower House in 1993, has teamed up with head teacher Dale Butler in a bid to take both spots.

Alex Scott said the main national issues discussed in Warwick East were drugs and crime and immigration.

He added: "Drugs and crime, I guess, is the common thread running through it -- but immigration is touching on black and white families.

"Youngsters are going abroad, coming back trained and finding contract workers in jobs they can hold.'' And he said: "If the PLP win, that is probably going to win the election for us. The glass ceiling has become, in the minds of black and white people, an immigration one.'' Mr. Richards -- the son of the Island's first black Premier Sir Edward and raised in the constituency -- said: "The main issues are not too much different than in other places in Bermuda.

"They're concerned about drugs and crime, concerned about facilities for senior citizens, education and worried about foreigners in Bermuda.

He added: "People tell us what's on their minds -- there is still some illegal drug activity in the area and they're concerned about that.

"But people are quite pleased that the Ord Road area has been improved.'' Larry Scott said the area was a mixed bag, with widespread `immigration' from Sandys/Somerset, his home area, in recent years.

He predicted: "I think this will be an interesting election -- it will turn up people whom the politicians least expect.'' The UBP Scott added the issues on the street were crime and drugs, education, traffic problems and housing.

He said: "People are really very concerned about the crime thing -- the other issue has been education and how we're going to deal with our young black men in particular. And it's not been in an angry way. They understand the problems.'' But he said the Warwick stretch of Ord Road was a different place after a crackdown on drugs, including the much-publicised Operation Cleansweep.

Mr. Butler said: "Everywhere we go, everybody is concerned about crime and drugs. and the under-utilisation of young people and Bermudians as a whole.'' And he added older people were worried about the lack of respect shown to them on the roads -- and elsewhere.

Mr. Butler said: "There are feelings of lack of worth -- and the people who have been the most vociferous have been the over-45s.'' He added that local issues included a mini-population boom which was clogging the roads and the bus service failing to take account of changes in the area and adding bus stops.

According to the figures for the last General Election, the total over-18 population of the constituency was 2445 -- making it the biggest constituency on the Island -- and that is now around the 2600 mark.

And the 1991 census -- the latest figures available -- the largest age groups were in the 30-39, 50-64 and 40-49 brackets.

There were a total of 1799 black voters and 484 white electors, with 98 classing themselves as other or refusing to say.

Female voters outnumbered males by 189 -- 1285 compared to 1096, with women being highly represented in the 30-39 and 50-64 age groups.

The seat has always been a marginal constituency in which a handful of swing votes can decide the issue -- only 43 votes separated top-placed Mr. Pearman and third-placed PLP candidate Calvin Smith in 1993.

It was held by the United Bermuda Party in 1968, 1972, split between the two main parties in 1976, won by the PLP in 1980, but split again in 1983.

Ex-Environment Minister Mr. Pearman took one seat in 1983 and was joined by former Education Minister Gerald Simons in 1985, repeating the trick in 1989.

Mr. Scott knocked out Mr. Simons in 1993.