Nelson Mandela's eagerness to put his presidential stamp on South Africa will cause more violence after the elections.

This is the prediction of Mr. Jean-Claude Galbrun, a retired financial consultant who has worked with many newly developing countries in Africa and Asia, although he now lives in Bermuda.

Mr. Galbrun shared his ideas with a group of about 60 people at the Bermuda College on Wednesday.

Although the world is looking forward to the upcoming elections where the black majority will be able to vote for the first time, Mr. Galbrun said it would be a mistake to view this as a step forward.

"There is a fallacy as far as South Africa is concerned,'' he said.

"Although the idea of one-man one-vote has achieved a lot of resonance around the world, unfortunately, it means nothing in a society like South Africa that is dominated by tribal structures.

"Before a member of a tribe goes to vote, the first thing he will do is seek the advise of his chief. Whether it is the village, the district or within the city he is living in, he will not vote differently from what his chief will tell him.

"One-man one-vote is a wonderful slogan that can be used to build up a crowd or a group of followers but it does not apply in tribal societies.'' Mr. Galbrun criticised Nelson Mandela and Inkatha leader Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi for not understanding the complexity of the issues they have to address.

He argued that although it was a fairly safe bet the African National Congress would win the April elections, there were pressing questions ahead of Mandela as he coped with the demands for compensation from the black majority who will expect jobs and a better standard of living from the new administration.

"We do know that whenever a party that has been underground for some time comes to power, they tend to split because different people within the party are often upset with the position and privileges they have received.

"In the next two or three years you will see the ANC which is an alliance of some 15-18 groups, become weaker. Mandela is extremely charismatic, but he will not be there forever to help to avoid splits.'' Mr. Galbrun added that another difficulty facing the new ANC administration would be the exodus of highly skilled whites from the work force. He explained that recent polls have suggested that between 250,000 and 300,000 white professionals would leave South Africa within six months of an ANC victory which was not a good sign for the new government, because it will rob the country of human and capital resources.

"Winning an election is one thing,'' he said. "Translating that gain into reality is another.'' Nelson Mandela.