time. It seems to us that Bermudians, even those who support Independence, have been happy for a number of years not to bother their heads too much with Independence. The politicians did not raise it before the last election because it is guaranteed to lose you votes. Then Sir John Swan, stung by a very close election, decided to move Independence to the forefront of Bermudian politics. It was a move which just about no-one had asked for. There was no unusual demand from the people. Independence had hardly been whispered during the election campaign. Britain had said nothing out of the ordinary, indeed nothing at all.

Sir John is Bermuda's longest serving Premier and a long-time supporter of Independence and he may have decided that this was his last opportunity to be the leader of an independent Bermuda. We think Sir John genuinely believes that his party might not win the next election if it does not lead Bermuda to Independence. He dearly wants his party to continue in power and genuinely believes that Bermuda would suffer under a PLP government. Sir John, we think, believes that after Independence the UBP will hold its traditional support no matter what and can create a majority by adding to that those people in the middle who will be pleased with the UBP for going independent. Maybe Sir John is correct. But he has taken an enormous chance.

He could split his party so that it never recovers. He might split the Country in a dangerous way that resulted in a lack of cooperation and flights of capital. His personal position could be gravely damaged by a referendum on Independence that was muddied by the PLP or, if unmuddied, resulted in a heavy vote against Independence. He could also make a great many people very angry at their fellow Bermudians if their long-held dream of Independence were dashed by a no at a referendum.

Right now, a referendum on Independence is likely to be a sound negative. That could change with the inquiry. Some people might be persuaded to change their minds and support Independence. However, when the costs of Independence are presented realistically, some people may well decide simply that Independence is not worth it. A great majority of businesses are already stated as opposed.

It may be that when faced with the real possibility of Independence people will back off because they dislike the unknown.

It seems that even if a referendum went in favour, it would be unlikely to be strongly in favour. The trouble is that if the referendum went marginally in favour of Independence we cannot see how Sir John would unify the people behind Independence. If the vote went against Independence, which it seems likely to do, then Sir John could find himself in a very difficult situation having been seen to back Independence.

It is extraordinary to think that those who advocate Independence would be happy to have Bermuda limp across a no return line, bloodied and bandaged, divided and uncertain.