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Election fever

The 2007 version of election fever is proving to be an especially virulent and long-lasting strain, not least because the only cure for this disease is an actual call to the polls.

With the summer over, some pundits are now predicting that Premier Dr. Ewart Brown will call a poll in later October or November, presumably after he has enjoyed a favourable week of media coverage hobnobbing with Tiger Woods and "the three other guys" at the PGA Grand Slam tournament to be held on the Island, and one would imagine, having disposed of the BHC case in which this newspaper is a defendant before the Privy Council.

Those are plausible arguments, but the absence of one group of voters on the Island makes a November election unlikely. That group is made up of the hundreds of Bermudian students away at university.

Observers with reasonably long memories will recall how harshly the Progressive Labour Party criticised the United Bermuda Party Government in November, 1998 for calling a poll which effectively disenfranchised the students, most of whom would have been casting a vote for the first time after the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18.

The PLP would now stand accused of hypocrisy if it called a poll during term time.

In addition, Dr. Brown has also assiduously courted younger voters and is reasonably popular in this demographic, so it would seem unlikely that he or the party would deliberately snub this group.

Nonetheless, in the absence of a promised but undelivered postal ballot, this means that the PLP is boxed in with regard to when it can call an election, thus reducing some of the advantage that the Westminster system bestows on the incumbent.

If it opts to give students the vote, then it can only reasonably hold a vote in either December or during the summer. With this summer now over, it seems likely that the next available date will be December, assuming that the polls are favourable. Failing that, it would seem that the Government will have to hang on until summer, 2008.

That has the effect of handing lame duck status to the Government and putting it in the unenviable position of having to call an election when the news may not be so good.

For candidates and the public, it will also extend the feeling of being in a permanent campaign. Constituents like to see their MPs and candidates, but there may come a point when election fatigue sets in, assuming that they will have been visited more often than they would like by those people seeking their vote.

It also creates difficulties for both parties. Both will want to roll out their ideas and strategies for the campaign, but doing so too early makes them seem stale, available to be copied by the other side and liable to be overtaken by events. But silence on critical issues, because the policy is being held back for the platform, also causes problems.

All of this makes one wonder if Bermuda would not be better off with fixed terms and election dates (at a time when the students are home), so at least the community would not be faced with the prospect of months of electioneering.