The tiny majorities held by many of Bermuda's MPs should make for a nail-biting election night. Here four political pundits predict how the tight races will go. On the panel are retiring PLP MP Jamahl Simmons, who has been a member of all Bermuda's parties, former National Liberal Party leader Charles Jeffers, a senior UBP insider, who wished to remain anonymous, and a long-standing PLP supporter who is disillusioned with her party but also wants to keep her name under wraps.

Warwick South-EastPLP seat. Majority: 96. Candidates: Alex Scott PLP, Jeff Sousa UBP

Simmons: Alex Scott should get in at about the same level he did before for the same reason as many of the other PLP incumbents demographics, combined with an opponent who lacks the stature and drawing power to take him out.

Jeffers: "I think Alex Scott will probably widen his majority." Mr. Jeffers said the removal of previous candidate Bob Richards to a much safer bet meant the UBP didn't rate its chances.

UBP source: "Alex will hold his own. He might see a reduction of votes to about 75." The source said Mr. Scott had positioned himself well with his manoeuvrings on Southside and as a critic of the Premier. "He's enough of a rogue without having lost his gentlemanly qualities."

PLP dissident: "Jeff ain't got the sway. He thinks he does. I can't see it yet although I can see him making the seat more marginal. Jeff is not so likeable he's pretty rambunctious but he's working hard."

Warwick North East

PLP seat. Majority: 38 votes.

Candidates: Dale Butler PLP, Gina Spence-Farmer UBP

Simmons: Dale Butler will win this with fewer than 50 votes to spare. Farmer has the profile and has been pounding the pavement and demographic changes (traditional PLP supporter numbers declining while UBP traditional supporters on the increase) should benefit her cause.

She has the potential to tap into the black youth vote although her UBP membership is a handicap in this regard despite her record.She has made many missteps on talk radio and hasn't set the world on fire with her Senate presentations. Dale Butler is however a widely respected Minister and Community figure who is arguably the hardest working MP on the constituency level.

With his non-stop canvassing, community focus and community wide appeal he should once again escape with a narrow win.

Jeffers: "That is going to be an interesting one. I think Dale Butler is probably the only minister who makes time for his constituents. He will win an election and the next day be out there again. He certainly works his area. Although it was close last time with Mark Pettingill, Mr. Butler will hold on with a majority which might be a little bigger."

UBP source: "On the day Butler will bring it home. When people look at the conservative, level-headedness people like to see in Government they will see it in Butler."

PLP dissident: "I think those people on Harbour Road are party voters. The reason they voted against the UBP in 1998 are not the same reasons they will vote now. I think Dale has worked very, very hard but I think they are going to tell him, 'Sorry Dale, don't take this personally.' And Gina has handled herself very well. Remember that Club Med and they started to attack her and be very rude she maintained that high ground. I think she represents the type of response that most people are looking for. They are tired of that rude in your face, let's denigrate you, type of behaviour. I think this time around Dale will have to say to goodbye to his seat. Gina is going to take it but not by much."

Warwick South Central

PLP seat. Majority: 222.

Candidates: Ewart Brown PLP, Roderick Simons UBP.

Simmons: Ewart Brown will win this easily because of a demographic advantage combined with a weak UBP candidate.

Jeffers: "The Premier will win with a comfortable majority."

UBP source: "Ewart is safe. I think the Southlands decision showed he can be, and has been flexible, it came at an opportune time. In an ironic way Alex Scott has helped save his nemesis."

PLP dissident: "Ewart will take it but I tell you what the taxi drivers are working very hard to get him out. But I can't see a sitting (former)Premier losing their seat."

Warwick North Central

PLP seat. Majority: 134.

Candidates:El James PLP, Wayne Scott UBP

Simmons: El James to win. Scott has been hitting the pavement for almost two years and is a stronger candidate on the doorstep than the UBP's 2003 offering, but lacks a strong national profile and name recognition. Demographics in this area don't favour the UBP so Scott will have to draw heavily on the white base of the UBP and pray for a low turnout or that he can draw a substantial number of black votes.

El James is a former MP for the area who has always posted strong positive poll numbers and has high name recognition from his outstanding sports and business career. He wasn't the most active or vocal MP but his personal favourability should keep him in good stead.

Jeffers: "El James will probably win it. Of course George Scott got pushed over to the other seat because I think the Premier really wanted to get El back in."

UBP source: "This is the seat to watch. Whoever wins this could win Government. At the moment Wayne Scott is hanging on but it is a considerable distance from here to polling day." He said the dropping of current MP George Scott will work in the PLP's favour as it was an admission there had been a problem with him.

PLP dissident: "I will give this one to the PLP. They are still pretty loyal up in that area."

Warwick West

All pundits predict Mark Pettingill to retain the seat for the UBP

Southampton East

All pundits predict Stanley Lowe to retain the seat for the PLP

Southampton East Central

UBPseat. Majority: 20 votes.

Candidates David Dodwell UBP, Zane DeSilva PLP

Simmons: Too close to call. David Dodwell's tremendous crossover appeal stole this seat from the PLP in 2003. Zane DeSilva has been pounding the pavement since March but despite the tremendous support from the PLP and the demographic advantage will it be enough to trump Dodwell's appeal?

Jeffers: "David Dodwell. First of all Zane DeSilva doesn't live there. Number two if you look at him why is he running for the PLP? You look at the association with him and the Premier and construction.It is almost like personal support. Tannock couldn't beat David Dodwell, Tannock came close and wanted to run but I think the Premier wanted Zane." Mr. Jeffers said Mr. Dodwell was similar to Flip Galloway who retained his Sandys seat until his dying day after which the UBP lost it every time since.

UBP source: "I think Zane DeSilva's got it. He's worked hard, he's showed great commitment. He's charismatic, I know of very few people who have met Zane DeSilva who say they don't find him to be the dictionary meaning of charming, that will assist him.On paper the candidates are even-Stevens, but I think Dodwell with his $50 million revamp of The Reefs will find that the election couldn't have come at a worse time."

PLP dissident: "David Dodwell is going to get this seat."

Southampton West Central

UBP seat. Majority: 129.

Candidates:Jon Brunson UBP, Marc Bean PLP.

Simmons: Jon Brunson will win but it is one to watch as the combination of a weak incumbent with a challenger who has the potential to draw a substantial amount of youth and "non-traditional" voters could see the incumbent's unimpressive margin of victory in 2003 narrow even more in 2008.

Jeffers: Brunson

UBP source: Brunson

PLPdissident: Brunson

Southampton West

PLP seat. Majority: 221.

Candidates: Randy HortonPLP, Charlie Swan UBP

Simmons: Randy Horton

Jeffers: "This could be a very interesting one. I would hate to call it but I would have to give the edge to Horton because of popularity. He is the minister. While Charlie is black he is still part of the so called white party but I would not be terribly surprised if it was one of the upsets. It will probably be very close."

UBP source: "Horton will have to keep an eye on Charlie Swan. He's not to be taken for granted. I am satisfied that the warning shot across his bow has got his attention. If it didn't I think young Swan will get his attention."

PLP dissident: "Charlie is doing well up there and Randy is pretty well disliked, he's lazy, he's arrogant." She said there was lingering discontent after Government put in a crony at Sandys Sec instead of a local. "I don't think he's handled education all that well, and doesn't do his due diligence. Then there's the whole thing with Ellen-Kate, his sister, pushed up to be Permanent Secretary. I think people are tired of the Hortons so if he gets in it will certainly become a very marginal seat."

Sandys South

PLPseat. Majority: 187.

Candidates: Terry Lister PLP, Alvin Wilson UBP

Simmons: Terry Lister

Jeffers: "I think Terry Lister may win with a reduced majority he's had a number of issues. He resigned from the ministry to go to the backbenches and he had some personal reasons for that I am sure."

UBP source: "I think one thinks some of that will had an effect but what it will have demonstrated is that he is human like anyone else and he holds himself up no higher than his fellow man."

PLP dissident: "I think this is one to watch. I don't know if Terry and those guys have been out canvassing. Terry could be in trouble but I would say he will scrape through but it will become a very marginal seat."

All our pundits predicted a clean sweep for the PLP incumbents in the rest of Sandys with Walter Lister retaining Sandys South Central, Dennis Lister retaining Sandys North Central and Michael Scott retaining Sandys North.