The United Bermuda Party’s decision to change horses comes as something of a surprise, not least because the process of change, begun some four months ago, has been done so quietly and smoothly.

That stands in contrast to the bloodletting that accompanied the 2003 ouster of Dame Jennifer Smith as Premier and her replacement by Alex Scott in the Progressive Labour Party.

That at least bodes well for Wayne Furbert as he replaces Grant Gibbons, and suggests that the UBP parliamentary group stands behind its new leader, in contrast to the still-divided PLP.

Still, Mr. Furbert’s election will come as something of a surprise, at least to those who do not follow UBP politics closely.

He is not seen as being a natural speaker and does not have the star power of a John Swan or C.V. (Jim) Woolridge.

However, Mr. Furbert is an astute politician and he has the benefit of having won and lost elections in marginal constituencies. He recaptured Hamilton West in 1993 with Maxwell Burgess when defeat would have resulted in a 20-20 tie in the House of Assembly, and losing in the PLP landslide in 1998 should not be seen as a failure.

Re-elected in the new Hamilton West in 2003 after a spell as party chairman means that Mr. Furbert has shown his mettle and has a broad and deep knowledge of his party’s strengths and weaknesses.

He will need that knowledge in the run-up to the next General Election as he tries to establish the UBP as a viable alternative to the PLP.

The great problem for the UBP, and the contributing cause of Dr. Gibbons’ departure, is why it failed to capitalise on the PLP’s unpopularity from 2003 on.

There is little doubt that the UBP ran a better campaign than the PLP in 2003 and still lost, and following a brief honeymoon, Mr. Scott’s approval and popularity ratings have rarely exceeded 50 percent. But Dr. Gibbons’ own ratings were rarely better, at least according to the Royal Gazette’s <$>polls.

It may be that Dr. Gibbons, a highly intelligent and able man, was never able to shed the Front Street label. A warm and humorous man with a strong streak of self-deprecation in private, he never seemed to connect with the average voter and the gap between how white and black voters perceived him was particularly strong.

To some extent, Mr. Furbert comes in with a clean slate. His ability to win votes in a marginal constituency suggests that he may be able to capture the black middle class swing voter who is key to the UBP’s national electoral hopes.

In his statement in today’s paper, he said he hopes to create a new political dynamic in Bermuda politics.

There is a hunger for that, and a desire to get way from the race-based politics of the past, as shown by the recent interest in third parties.

The poll conducted by The Royal Gazette <$>on party political intentions last September put the PLP a nose ahead of the UBP. But the number of people refusing to say how they would vote and undecideds was close to 50 percent of the electorate.

All of that speaks to a general disillusionment with politics, but it also gives Mr. Furbert a huge opportunity to convert undecideds into UBP voters. The recent success of David Cameron, the new Conservative Party leader in the United Kingdom, shows how this can be done by taking middle ground from the Labour Government. Mr. Furbert may be able to do the same.

If he can build a new passion for a new politics in Bermuda and lay out a vision for the future that Bermudians want to embrace, then his chances of success are strong.