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US consumers 'procrastinate' on this year's holiday shopping

(Bloomberg) — Consumers have completed less of their holiday shopping by this point than they have in at least three years and appear to be waiting for bargains later in the month, the International Council of Shopping Centers said.A holiday consumer survey found that 25 percent of consumers have finished half or more of their expected shopping by December 3 down from 32 percent in both 2004 and 2005, the New York-based trade group said today in a statement. Sales at US retail stores open at least a year rose 3.1 percent, down from a 3.5 percent gain in 2005, ICSC and UBS Securities LLC said.

With an extra shopping weekend between Thanksgiving and Christmas, consumers are “procrastinating,” said Dan Popowics, an analyst with Fifth Third Asset Management.

“Shoppers are savvy and realise that in some cases they can be rewarded for waiting,” said Popowics, who helps manage $21 billion in assets. “The calendar needs to turn over a few more days before the season heats up a bit.”

US retailers’ November sales rose less than analysts estimated and the ICSC last week lowered its forecast for the holidays after Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s biggest retailer, forecast slowing growth.

Last year, 32 percent of the retail industry’s profit and 27 percent of sales were derived in the November-through-January period, the group said.

ICSC Chief Economist Mike Niemira said on Nov. 30 he expected same-store sales to increase by as little as 2.5 percent for November and December compared with last year. The ICSC had previously estimated a three percent gain. In 2005, sales for the two months increased 3.6 percent.

The procrastination “potentially suggests a late wave of holiday buying,” Niemira said today in a statement. ICSC expects sales to rise by 2.5 percent to three percent for December, Niemira said.

Sales for the week through December 2 fell 2.6 percent from the week earlier, the third decline in the past four weeks.

The New York-based trade group tracks reports from as many as 75 companies.

Chain-store sales for the month of November rose 2.1 percent, the smallest gain since March, ICSC said on November 30 after Wal-Mart posted its worst monthly sales numbers in more than a decade.