Syria will probably respond with public defiance and military caution if Israel carries out its threats to attack Hamas leaders in Damascus, analysts said.

And President Bashar al-Assad is unlikely to drop his backing for militant Palestinians as a result of intimidation such as Wednesday’s overflights by Israeli warplanes, even though he has little leverage over their policies, they said.

The planes produced sonic booms over one of Assad’s palaces near Latakia in what the Israeli army said was a warning to the Syrian leader for hosting Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal.

A similar overflight of Assad’s home in August 2003 after an Israeli was killed by Hizbollah shelling failed to shake Syria’s long-standing ties with its Shi’ite guerrilla allies in Lebanon.

Israel says Meshaal ordered Sunday’s attack by Palestinian militants who captured an Israeli soldier near the Gaza Strip, though exiled Hamas leaders deny any involvement, as does Syria.

“The chances are very high that Israel will try to knock off senior Hamas people in Syria or elsewhere,” said Beirut-based commentator Rami Khoury, saying such assassinations in the past had boosted the appeal of the Islamist movement, helping it to trounce its Fatah rivals in January’s Palestinian elections.

Hamas’s armed wing was among three factions involved in the cross-border raid into Israel, but has not said it is holding the 19-year-old soldier. Hamas said the operation was a response to Israel’s killing of 14 Palestinian civilians in attacks against militants carrying out cross-border rocket strikes.

Khoury said Assad would seek a propaganda advantage from any strike on Syrian soil, but might be warier than usual of spurring his Hizbollah allies to retaliate by rocketing Israel.

While Syria has long kept its own Golan Heights border with Israel quiet, it has maintained pressure on its foe by sometimes unleashing Hizbollah or Palestinian attacks from south Lebanon.

Assad has sought to shore up his own position against domestic critics and international pressure by portraying Syria as a bulwark against US hegemony in the region and a defender of Arab national interests against Israeli aggression.

Any Israeli attack on Syrian soil could reinforce this rhetorical line, rather than inflicting a humiliation that could damage Assad’s standing at home and in the Arab world — or persuade him to heed the warning Israel is trying to convey.

“The Israelis are in crisis and they are trying to get out of it by sending us messages. It won’t work,” said one Syrian official who asked not to be named.

Israeli Housing Minister Meir Shetreet said Meshaal received protection and a place to live in Damascus, while the Syrians gave Hizbollah arms, training and support. “They have to understand things can’t go on this way,” he told Israel Radio.

So far Israel has sought to win its soldier’s release with a military offensive in Gaza and by seizing eight Hamas cabinet ministers and dozens of officials in the occupied West Bank.

A member of Syria’s ruling Baath Party said the scope of the Israeli response showed it wanted to raise regional tension. “Israel didn’t even contemplate a prisoner swap. They leave Syria no option but to support Hamas to the hilt,” he said.

Syria has for years resisted US demands to expel Hamas.

“Syria has not exerted pressure on us because it knows Hamas is not militarily present here and that military operations are planned, supervised and conducted from the inside,” said Mohammad Nazzal, a Damascus-based member of the Hamas politburo.

Wednesday’s brazen flights over Assad’s palace underlined Israel’s military edge over Syria’s ill-equipped forces, last illustrated in October 2003 when its planes hit a Palestinian training camp near Damascus after a suicide bombing in Haifa.

Thabet Salem, a Syrian political commentator, said Damascus could only respond verbally to the Israeli aerial challenge.

But perhaps in coordination with Egypt, Syria might quietly advise Hamas to “try and end the problem and not risk destroying Gaza and see losses far exceeding any gains”, he added.

A Western diplomat in Damascus said Syria’s influence on Hamas was limited, as shown by the minor role the Syrians have played in efforts to resolve the group’s conflict with Fatah.

“The Syrians are under pressure to pressure Hamas, but really they cannot tell them what to do,” the diplomat said. (Reuters)