Today's poll showed a mini-surge of support for Independence, with those supporting the idea rising from 20 percent in May to 28 percent in July.

The increase was more impressive compared to March, when just 15 percent of those polled said they supported Independence. That in turn marked a steady decline from November when 21 percent said they supported the idea.

Nonetheless, even at 28 percent, that is still only a little more than a quarter of voters signalling support for the idea.

The most notable statistic in the poll may be the 65 percent who oppose the idea. That number has barely moved since January, and means that while some of the people who were previously undecided have move into the pro-Independence column, those who have already made their minds up against Independence seem to have made up their minds for good.

That suggests that Premier Alex Scott's hope that "once all the facts are known" and "people are educated on the issue", there would be a groundswell of support for Independence is groundless.

It is likely that it will take much more than that to change people's minds.

While there are some people who will never, under any circumstances, support Independence, there are others who believe that Bermuda would do all right under Independence, but are still waiting for a compelling reason to change the status quo.

That has not yet happened, and based on the public meetings and so forth that have taken place, it seems unlikely that the report of the Bermuda Independence Commission will contain some magical reason for Bermuda to seek sovereignty.

The other risk for the Commission is that it will produce only the advantages for Independence and none of the disadvantages. then it will be accused of having produced a whitewash, and that could kill Independence for the foreseeable future.