Any hopes in the Opposition United Bermuda Party that it would get a quick bounce in popularity from changing leaders appear to have been dashed by the latest poll conducted by this newspaper.

It must now be clear that Wayne Furbert has a good deal of work to do to show that he is a legitimate rival to Premier Alex Scott in the leadership stakes, as voters seem to be generally underwhelmed by his appointment.

Perhaps most worryingly for the UBP, and most happily for the Progressive Labour Party, the leadership change seems to have done little to determine what party people would vote for, with the PLP gaining ground to about 40 percent of voters and the UBP essentially stuck at around 30 percent.

That?s good news for the PLP, which has been stuck in the low to mid-30 percent range for some time. It may be that a Budget that did not raise taxes much, some progress on tourism and finally, some movement on housing, has firmed up the Government?s support. It could also be that the leadership change itself has made some people commit to the PLP.

Mr. Scott himself may well be pleased with this poll, which showed slight increases in his positive approval and favourability ratings.

But the truth is they only look good in comparison to Mr. Furbert?s. More than half of the respondents do not approve of Mr. Scott?s handling of the job, which should be worrying.

Both parties can take some heart from the large number of people who remain undecided ? in spite of the move to the PLP in this poll ? which shows that the next General Election could go either way.

Mr. Furbert should take particular encouragement from this. If he has not caused a sea change in political thinking, it would appear that many voters are still prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Having said that, it is by no means clear how much difference a leader makes to his or her party?s electoral chances.

That was shown graphically in the 2003 Elections when then-Premier Dame Jennifer Smith nearly lost her seat but led her party to an eight-seat majority. And it seems to be true now as well.

But a bad move by a leader, or continued internal squabbling over the leadership, can affect a party?s chances. And it is in this context that leadership counts.

There will be, perhaps, an example of this tomorrow, when Mr. Scott makes a national TV address on the ?age of empowerment?, which is the Government?s latest catch phrase, the Social Agenda, apparently, having been dropped.

He will presumably, discuss the just passed Budget and put an emphasis on economic empowerment, where the UBP has been laying out a more cogent policy than the PLP. Whether it will make any difference to the popularity of Mr. Scott or the Government remains to be seen. But it does show the power of incumbency.