It's anybody's guess whether Independence will be on the Progressive Labour Party's (PLP) manifesto for the coming election.

The ruling party has not given any firmer indication since Jennifer Smith's remarks in the run up to the 1998 election campaign that the topic may or may not be in its second term campaign platform.Calls to the Premier and other members of the Cabinet on the issue in the last few days were not returned.

When she named the election date two weeks ago, Ms Smith said that the voters would have to wait for the manifesto. But the ruling party has been pro-Independence since inception and, according to some observers, a vote for the PLP will amount to a mandate for Independence.

"Independence is practically guaranteed if the PLP wins a second term," says Graeme Outerbridge of the National Liberal Party (NLP).

The NLP is pro-independence, and the United Bermuda Party (UBP) whose candidates are divided on the issue, takes the official line, shared by the third party, that the people should decide by way of a referendum.

"Independence has always to us been a referendum issue, not something for the narrow confines of party politics," said Mr. Outerbridge.

"The NLP also feels a referendum is an under-utilised democratic asset of the country. We don't see it being used on issues like Independence, but foreign policy, education and other issues. The reason why I think Independence needs the input of the voters is that politicians think they can say what the voters want without actually knowing."

Mr. Outerbridge said he believed a referendum should take place within the next three to five years, but he would be guided by the wishes of the majority of his constituents if the PLP won the election and tried to push it through via the legislature.

"It's an issue that should be decided by the people of Bermuda in a referendum," said UBP leader Grant Gibbons.

"It's not an issue that should be mixed up with all the other issues in a general election."

Asked if the party would support a referendum in the next three to five years, Dr. Gibbons said: "it's a very fundamental issue and if the UBP were in government we would certainly be listening very carefully, monitoring the situation and there may be something going on externally where independence would come up as an issue but at this point it's difficult to say whether it should or shouldn't."

Independence, he added, is "not an issue for this election and we will not manufacture reasons to make it an issue for this election. There are more pressing issues at this time."

Ruling party candidates, while all generally supporters of an independent Bermuda, may differ as to how high it should be on the priority list. The PLP believes Independence should be decided by way of a general election. It urged its supporters to abstain during the 1995 referendum, arguing that electoral and other reforms must come first. Despite the abstention campaign, close to 60 percent of eligible voters turned out, and about three quarters of those who voted rejected independence. And the ruling party opposes a referendum on independence because, it says, a simple 'yes' or 'no' question would not do justice to the topic and is an inadequate way of assessing feedback from the public.

The issue has historically been a sensitive and volatile one. It bitterly divided the then ruling UBP when its leader Sir John Swan brought it up in the early 1990's. When it was rejected by the voters, Sir John resigned the Premiership. Bermuda is already the most constitutionally advanced of Britain's colonies with Britain having the final say on security and foreign policy matters.

Today's independence arguments take into account post September 11 realities and Britain's moves toward greater integration with the European Union and other regional groupings. The developments would suggest increasing conflict between Britain and Bermuda's interests, Independence advocates say.

Mr. Outerbridge says Bermuda has some complex questions to answer about its future, and supports a referendum during the next three to five years

"Example: Is our foreign policy as handled by England weakening our economic position?" he said.

"Is the Bermuda Air Agreement serving the best aviation interest of Bermuda or Britain? And is it in the best interests of Bermuda to appeal all the way to the Privy Council or are we going to join the Caribbean Appeal Court? Is it in the best interests of Bermuda to be drawn into closer union with the European Union?"

Voters might want to ask candidates in their districts whether they would personally want Bermuda to go independent, and if they would support a referendum on the issue, within the next three to five years.

Related Opposition concerns arise from the electoral reform process and include the fact that there is no consistent mechanism for changing the Constitution.

"A lot of the anxiety, suspicion and concern over the last changes could have been avoided had there been an agreed upon set of procedures for making significant changes to the Constitution," said Dr. Gibbons.

And the Opposition also wants to address some "residual issues" springing from the move to single seat constituencies. While the PLP takes full credit for levelling the electoral system, the UBP was alarmed by how the changes were pushed through and it wants to add a constitutional clause that says that "significant" changes should be pursued through an "updated constitutional conference", followed by a referendum.

The Government side has in the past pointed out the British Government's position that it will not approve any changes to the Constitution unless it would lead to full independence. But Britain recently indicated that the Governor was being asked to canvass the public on means of changing the Constitution.

The UBP will continue to advocate an independently appointed Speaker of the House because it believes that the current method of choosing a Speaker (from among the elected members) will mean that the Speaker's electoral district loses a vote, and a voice, in Assembly debates. Under the dual seat system, the Speaker's running mate picked up the slack, goes the Opposition's argument. During last year's debate on the Boundaries Commission Report, Premier Jennifer Smith responded to this particular concern by saying that there was no need for an independent Speaker because the nature of party politics meant that the constituents of an elected Speaker under a single seat system is taken care of, and so does not lose representation in the House.

"I would venture to guess that the constituents would be in a particularly good place because no one would want to anger the Speaker by not taking care of those constituents," the Premier said in the House of Assembly late last year. The ruling party also points to the fact that in Britain which also has a single seat system, the House of Commons does not have an independently appointed Speaker.

The NLP does not support the UBP's proposal for an independently appointed speaker. The party is also supporting proposals by shadow Legislative Affairs Minister John Barritt related to opening up parliamentary committee meetings to the public.

"It would reform the way the House goes about its business," said Dr. Gibbons yesterday.

And the Opposition party is calling for a review of how the Senate is composed and its mandate. "We have done the House and it1s timely to look at the Senate as well."

Dr. Gibbons said that a House Committee would be set up to look at all the Constitutional issues if elected into government.