It's hurricane season and this year it is expected to be higher than average, says a local meteorologist.

Seasonal predictions, released in April from the Colorado State University, and the Tropical Storm Risk research group at University College London, forecast a more active 2007 season than in previous years, explained Dr. Mark Guishard, director of the Bermuda Weather Service.

"Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach, of Colorado State University, predict there will be 17 named storms, nine of which will become hurricanes, and five of these intense hurricanes — Category Three or greater.

"In comparison, the annual average is ten named storms, six hurricanes and up to three more intense hurricanes. The recent upswing in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, the devastation wrought in New Orleans from Katrina, plus recent direct hits on Bermuda have all raised concerns about hurricane activity."

Dr. Guishard added that despite all the recent updates in technology, hurricanes are hard to predict, so that is why it is so important to prepare the community.

"This week is all about getting Bermuda ready," he said.

"September is seen as the peak of the hurricane season, with September 10, as the date where we have the most hurricane activity in the Atlantic. But there's even a danger from storms formed in March or April so at no time are we completely safe."

Based on 50 years of hurricane data, experts say the probability of a hurricane coming within one degree of a given location is minus -16 percent for Bermuda.

"But hurricanes don't remember where their predecessors have been, so it only takes one storm to put this statistic away," he said.

The most danger the Island faced was from re-curving hurricanes, such as Florence last September. These were most likely to happen in September and October.

"The Bermuda/Azores High — a high pressure system — usually dictates where storms go," he said.

"In 2004, many storms came off Africa and went into the Caribbean and the eastern United States. That was because we had a strong Bermuda High sitting near us, which tends to steer most storms far to the south of the Island.

"If you have a weak one, positioned further north and east, then you get more recurvature happening. The storms will come away from the US East Coast and nearer to our isolated island."

There are early indications that the Bermuda High will be relatively strong and close to our Island this year, but all it takes is for it to slacken off and a hurricane to come through, said Dr. Guishard.

Although there were 28 storms in 2005 — an unprecedented season in the number of storms forecast", there were no direct hits (on Bermuda). In contrast, last year there were only nine storms, but one hit>

"It just goes to show you only need one storm to make your Hurricane Season an active one," he said.

"Historically, we have been at as much risk in Bermuda during inactive seasons as in active years.

"Hurricane Felix in 1995 and 2003's devastating Hurricane Fabian both occurred during active years, but 1987's Hurricane Emily and Hurricane Florence last year both directly hit us during an overall lull in Atlantic activity."

In light of these facts, the message which should be conveyed is that of preparedness.

Dr. Guishard said: "There are five categories of hurricane and one category of tropical storm. Florence, on September 11 last year, was a Category One hurricane, while Fabian was Category Three, with winds of up to 130mph.

"Examples of 'monster' Category Five hurricanes are Katrina (2005) and Mitch (1998). Warning systems range from Potential Threat, to Threat, Hurricane Watch, and Hurricane Warning. "Working with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, the Bermuda Weather Service notifies the community of the intensity and direction of the storm. A Potential Threat is when the centre of the storm could move within 400 nautical miles of Bermuda within 72 hours.

"At this point you should be sitting up and taking notice!

"A Threat is when the storm is forecast to come within 100 nautical miles, and a Hurricane Watch is the possible onset of hurricane force winds — 64 knots of more — within 36 hourB>

"A Hurricane Warning is when you should batten down the hatches for an onslaught within 24 hours."

Preparations for protection of life and property should be rushed to completion because the tropical system should be close to impacting your area. You should really be finishing securing your boat and bringing everything inside, he sa

The BWS in such circumstances would then coordinate preparations and response with the thought of an approaching hurricane might be unnerving, however, thanks to advanced technology, we can better understand how they form, watch for patterns and better predict what may hap.