One of Bermuda's longest running political soap operas drew to close this week with Michael Dunkley confirmed as United Bermuda Party leader with Patricia Gordon-Pamplin as his number two.

But has the Opposition finally found the magic formula or will it be heading to its third successive defeat?

The Royal Gazette spoke to critics and supporters about the latest UBP pairing:

The selection of Michael Dunkley as new UBP leader has been given a ringing endorsement by former Tourism Minister CV (Jim) Woolridge who gave 'The Milkman' his wholehearted support.

He said: "I think he will do very well, he's very dedicated and works very hard. He's a responsible person as he's shown by running one of Bermuda's biggest businesses.

"I know few politicians on either side of the house as dedicated to their constituency.

"If you call his house on an evening he's never home, he's always out knocking on doors. He doesn't do it just when there is an election. He does it all the time."

The UBP veteran said it was stupid to brand Mr. Dunkley as a right winger and predicted he would be able to unite the country and get it back on track.

But he said it was important for the party to get behind him.

"It isn't important who makes the runs as long as you win the ball game. He is only one man, he can be as successful as the people around him."

However political commentator Walton Brown said the change in leadership had come too late to save the UBP from losing the election given the implosions within the party.

He said Mr. Dunkley was bright, energetic and fearless and was a more formidable challenge to the PLP than Wayne Furbert.

"These are the plus points but I doubt he has sufficient time to bridge the gap."

A recent poll, done by Mr. Brown's company Research Innovations Ltd, showed the Progressive Labour Party marginally ahead with 30.1 percent compared to the UBP's 24.2 percent with a large number of people refusing to commit to either.

However Mr. Brown said traditionally the undecideds divided up along similar proportions as those who had already declared — meaning the PLP would likely pick up the majority and win a third term.

And he said in Bermuda terms Mr. Dunkley represented the right wing.

"In Bermuda most politicians hover around the centre. We don't have a very wide spectrum.

"He represents the right — there is not a massive difference but it's sufficient to jeopardise new support for the party."

But he denied Mr. Dunkley was a knee-jerk politician and instead predicted he would grow into the position. "I think he will definitely bring new ideas to the party.

"Whenever you see him interviewed you see him wanting to speak on a wider range of issues but he is limited by his portfolio. I expect a number of new ideas to come out."

Clearly Mr. Dunkley has an uphill struggle given that the PLP is still leading in the polls with an election which could be just weeks away.

The election could be won or lost on which party can lure the black, female middle class.

Jamahl Simmons doesn't believe the UBP had got it right by selecting Mr. Dunkley who said he too one-dimensional to appeal to floating voters.

"I think he will be a stronger leader and more aggressive at pointing out where the Government is coming short," he said.

But he questioned whether Mr. Dunkley would be able to lay out a vision of where he wanted to take the country and appeal to those willing to switch support.

"When you get past 'We will do what the PLP isn't doing' then I don't think there's very much beyond that.

"I don't think the 'attack dog' approach is very appealing. It plays very well with the supporters but not very well with the wider community."

Mr. Simmons said putting out a negative message on what the PLP was doing and campaigning on issues like Southlands and the Medical Clinic, which had a limited appeal, risked making the UBP irrelevant.

The Dunkley/Gordon-Pamplin pairing was a dream team for aggressive UBP supporters who wanted more attacks on the PLP, said Mr. Simmons.

"But that is not going to get it done. You can come up with ten bad things about the PLP and people will give you ten more but you have to say what you are going to do otherwise you become irrelevant."

Mr. Simmons said he knew he would be attacked for sour grapes for voicing his criticism but he said it was important the Opposition had an agenda which could push the Government.

He said as a shadow Minister Mr. Dunkley had never come out with a plan — other than to have more cops on the street and the issue was not the party's leadership but its whole structure.

Party Chairman Shawn Crockwell said the election of Mr. Dunkley put the party in much better stead than under the predecessor.

"The issue isn't the leader, the issue is the support the leader can achieve. For whatever reason Wayne Furbert lost that support.

"Clearly you can't win an election without having full support of the parliamentary group and the party proper.

"We have a better chance of winning the election now. Prior to that it was very difficult to gain momentum and traction when there was an internal split."

He said Mr. Dunkley, as a white leader, could come under attack.

"If we are still stuck in mire of what colour the leader is then we as a country are significantly behind.

"I am hoping right-minded people will look beyond the very obvious issues of colour."

And he said Mr. Dunkley had a record of picking up support from middle class blacks as could be seen by his victory in Devonshire East where blacks are around 60 percent of the population.

Mr. Crockwell believes people were now less concerned with colour and more concerned about voting in someone who could get the job done.

And he pointed out the party was now picking up majority support from the poorest according to the opinion polls.

The key undecided voters are primarily black and female said Mr. Crockwell.

Asked if Mr. Dunkley would be able to appeal to that group he said: "I don't know what the overwhelming perception of Michael Dunkley is.

"I know what my perception is. I believe insecure people are intimidated by secure, confident people, whether or not it's Michael Dunkley.

"He's a secure, competent successful individual who has high standards he expects people to achieve. I don't find him intimidating or ambitious. He wants to get the job done."

The election will be about issues not personalities said Mr. Crockwell.

"I think if the PLP was competent and had governed satisfactorily it would be very difficult but the reality is they have failed and failed miserably in crime housing and education — three areas in our society which are in a state of crisis."

He said the PLP was scaring people by becoming more xenophobic and anti-white.

The UBP will try to broaden its racial appeal by having deputy leader Patricia Gordon-Pamplin figure prominently.

But Mr. Crockwell said this was natural given her personality and talent. "She's not one to stay in the shadows."

Mr. Simmons said although Mr. Dunkley claimed to understand the race issue he didn't really understand the nuances and would likely throw out superficial platitudes rather than address it.

"People are saying blacks don't want a white leader. There may be some truth to that.

"More importantly they want to know there is an understanding, there will be things put forward for a solution. I don't think we are going to see that."

The stakes are certainly high for the UBP.

Mr. Simmons said if Mr. Dunkley failed to deliver victory he would be expected to resign but the party was increasingly running short of potential replacements.

Wayne Furbert and Grant Gibbons had already done it while the party is losing Maxwell Burgess and Neville Darrell at the next election. "The pool gets more shallow."

Down at Hamilton bus terminal Mr. Dunkley's promotion got a mixed reception while there was support for his number two Patricia Gordon-Pamplin from people who spoke to The Royal GazetI>.

Corporation of Hamilton worker Alvin Wolffe, 43, said: "I would think it is a bad move in a country like this. Racism does exist, there is a colour divide. I have a white father so I am neutral."

But he said the selection would not go down well with a lot of blacks. "Mrs. Pamplin would stand a better chance of being Premier."

Phillip Johnson, 24, said Michael Dunkley was a good choice. "He might think things from a different perspective. I am not really sure what he does but if he makes things better then go for it."

Mr. Johnson said he didn't normally vote and was still undecided but Mr. Dunkley's elevation made it more like the UBP would get his vote.

One 88-year-old pensioner who declined to give her name also indicated the UBP might be more likely to get her support now. "Patricia Gordon-Pamplin is very good, I think they have a good team."

But hairdresser Kim Wales, 36, said it made no difference.

"Right now, as far as I am concerned, none of them get my backing.

"We have people with no place to stay, people are not making money like they should, rent is out of control. I won't vote until I see better results."