Bermuda’s so-called “education crisis” could have been overstated due to misleading graduation statistics in previous years, a highly placed source claimed last night.

The source — a leading education figure on the Island — said the apparent dramatic increase this year in the percentage of students achieving a Bermuda School Certificate (BSC) was likely to be down to the way figures were calculated in the past.

The overall pass rate for 2007, based on 173 graduates out of 212 senior four students, is almost 82 percent — representing a leap of nearly 34 percent from the previous year.

The results seem to contradict the findings of a $250,000 inquiry earlier this year which concluded that one of the two senior schools was failing and that the system overall was “on the brink of meltdown”.

The source said that the Ministry of Education previously measured the graduation rate by comparing the number of passes against a starting group of students, which included some who had moved from the Island, gone to other schools or dropped out of the system.

“We were so bad at calculating data before that I know the rate was deflated,” they said.

“Students were counted that were no longer in the system; students that had withdrawn or gone to other schools. We were never in the deepest of crises that we were led to believe.”

The source said that figures issued by the Ministry in January helped to undermine public belief in the state-run school system. “I don’t think that was ever the intention,” they added. “But this continual banging of the drum that we are in a crisis has done just that. There is great room for improvement but it’s not as bad as we thought.”

Some have suggested that the huge rise in the percentage of students graduating from the Berkeley Institute and CedarBridge Academy this year is due to last year’s pass rate of 48 percent being based on the number of graduates compared to the number of students who started out in S1 in 2002.

But Education Minister Randy Horton said in January that the 48 percent figure was based on “the number of students who begin the final S4 year”.

“The failure of half of the students who commence the S4 year is a totally unacceptable situation,” he said, adding that if the figure had been calculated based on the number starting S1 the pass rate would only be 38 percent. And yesterday the Ministry confirmed that the 2005/2006 graduation rate was based on the number of students entering S4.

This year’s 82 percent pass rate was calculated by The Royal Gazette based on statistics given out by the principals of the two schools last week.

CedarBridge head Kalmar Richards said that 107 out of 135 S4 students — or almost 80 percent — graduated. Michelle Simmons, principal of Berkeley, said 66 S4 students passed out of a possible 77, representing almost 86 percent.

But last night Action Education Minister Dennis Lister said The Royal Gazette’s>figured could not be confirmed because the Ministry includes students who pass summer school in their calculation of graduation rates.

He said: “It should be noted that the figures presented by Principals Mrs. Michelle Simmons and Mrs. Kalmar Richards are based on the achievement of students at the end of the 2006/7 school year.

“The figures released by the principals were not official figures. In both cases the principals were celebrating their school’s success and the Ministry applauds each and every one of their students for their achievements.”

The Ministry will not release the official graduation rates for Bermuda’s two public high schools until September, after the summer school programme has concluded.