RABAT (Reuters) —- Compare and contrast: in Algeria, a triple suicide bombing kills 33 people in the heart of the capital; in Morocco, six Islamists blow themselves up in the course of a month, but just one other person is killed.Intelligence agencies and security analysts are poring over the events of the past few weeks in North Africa’s Maghreb countries, where Algeria’s strongest radical group, the GSPC, rebranded itself this year as the regional branch of al Qaeda.

“The threat of terrorism has increased significantly in both countries,” said Henry Wilkinson of Janusian Security Risk Management, a London-based consultancy. But within that broader picture there are clear differences between the well-organised highly effective Algerian operatives and the Moroccans whose “zeal is greater than their training”, as Wilkinson put it.

While Algeria has been battling the GSPC for years, the triple attack on April 11 marked a switch to al Qaeda-style suicide tactics and a blow to the heart of the state as the bombers successfully struck the headquarters of government.

In laid-back neighbouring Morocco, heavily dependent on its tourist industry, the recent blasts marked an end to four years of calm since a dozen suicide bombers killed 45 people, including themselves, in Casablanca in 2003.

In a series of interviews, security analysts and diplomats said the violence in both countries is linked at least to the extent that it rests on the same al Qaeda ideology and reflects the aim of opening a wider regional front beyond Algeria.

But they do not see direct operational links between the various blasts <\m> largely because of the glaring contrast between the deadly professionalism of the Algiers attacks and the chaotic actions of the Moroccan bombers.

One of the Moroccans blew himself up in an Internet cafe after the owner apparently saw him accessing radical Web sites and became suspicious. Three others detonated suicide belts after being cornered by police, one of whose officers also died.

On April 14, two brothers blew themselves up <\m> but no one else was hurt <\m> in explosions outside the U.S. consulate in Casablanca. Their planning and reconnaissance was poor <\m> they chose a Saturday when the building was closed.

“How can you goof up the fact that there’s no one in the consulate that day? It just looks unprofessional,” said Nick Pratt, a CIA veteran now based in Germany at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.

The pattern of events “has been pretty chaotic and suggests a group of individuals acting without proper instructions”, said a Western diplomat based in the capital Rabat.

Moroccan press reports have suggested the suicide operatives were left leaderless by the arrest on March 8 <\m> three days before the Internet cafe explosion <\m> of a senior militant who had supplied their explosives and was also involved in recruiting volunteers for the insurgency in Iraq.

Moroccan authorities have made dozens of other arrests and announced the deployment of an extra 2,000 security personnel in Casablanca, the country’s biggest city and scene of all the recent incidents. “They’re not panicking just yet but they are very concerned that something bigger is brewing,” the Western diplomat said.

Mohamed Darif, a Moroccan expert on radical Islamist movements, said: “In my view we may be seeing in Morocco and the Maghreb a new upsurge of violence, and facing a new organisation whose hard core is the GSPC.”

The events are unsettling for investors. “What these small attacks do is dissuade anyone that was in the process of making an investment decision,” said Gavin Proudley, head of intelligence at London security group Quest.

Janusian’s Wilkinson said there was a risk the targets could widen to include the tourism sector, Morocco’s second biggest foreign currency earner after remittances from Moroccans abroad.

In advice to travellers, Britain’s Foreign Office says the terrorist threat is high, and the U.S. State Department warns of a high potential for attacks against American interests and citizens, including at restaurants, schools or hotels.

Other countries such as France and Spain are closely tracking the security situation in the region. France suffered attacks by Algerian militants in the 1990s, and a number of Moroccans took part in bombings in Madrid in 2004.

Spain has raised security in its North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, separated from Morocco by razor wire fences.

In the streets and cafes of Casablanca and the capital, Rabat, the mood is relaxed for now but nobody is complacent, said Darif. “Everyone in Morocco says you have to be ready for anything.”