Just a few days after Lloyd's of London said it could not predict the future, Accuweather's senior meteorologist told an audience at the Fairmont Hamilton Princess, and another online, that he will — on May 5.

Joe Bastardi was the guest speaker at a webinar organised by Towers Perrin Re. He is a popular weather forecaster in the US, appearing on television at regular intervals. A "webinar" is an online seminar, broadcast on the internet, which enables participants around the world to see and hear an expert presentation from their offices or homes.

Clearly a man with an all-consuming interest in weather — like his father before him and now his son — Mr. Bastardi covered a wide range of weather topics in considerable depth before being asked directly by one of the online audience if he would make a forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season this year.

Mr. Bastardi said that it was too early to answer that question, but added: "What I do see is above-normal activity this year, in numbers. I do see above-normal landfalling activity. I can't be any more descriptive at this point, but I am already being criticised for saying that I see Florida as the centre of a spraygun."

The "spraygun" effect meant that Mr. Bastardi expects that storm tracks in 2007, when super-imposed on top of each other at the end of the year, would produce a pattern reminiscent of a spraygun, with Florida at its centre.

He was able to formulate that hypothesis, he said, based on his extensive research into historical maps and data, plus esoteric formulae (one was displayed that would have required an advanced degree in meteorology just to understand its terms).

"We are in a nasty cycle right now," Mr. Bastardi said, referring to the multi-decadal oscillation that sees cycles of more or less severe Atlantic hurricane activity that each last around 40 years. The current upward cycle is about a quarter of the way through, suggesting that more difficult years, such as were experienced in 2004 and 2005, lie ahead.

Mr. Bastardi also offered a number of useful tips about forecasting the damage likely to be inflicted by hurricanes depending on various characteristics at the moment of landfall.

Hurricane forecasting is of the greatest interest to those who might be affected by the strong winds, but is of equal financial interest to the reinsurance industry, which was well represented at the Fairmont and online. The primary product of the Bermuda insurance market is catastrophe reinsurance, and the Atlantic hurricane experience each year dictates to a considerable extent the financial outcome of the year for the Bermuda market.

Good advance information on weather patterns allows those insuring or reinsuring against adverse conditions to make a better assessment of their potential risk, and to price the coverage they sell.

Mr. Bastardi spoke about global warming and asked his audience to keep an open mind. Vikings, he said, grew grapes in Greenland in 100AD. As he told us this, there was snow on the ground in mid-April in Ohio, among other places. His argument was that one should not formulate an opinion without first conducting extensive research into the matter, a principle he applies to all his endeavours.

After the webinar, Mr. Bastardi spoke for a little longer to the audience at the hotel.