MOSCOW (Reuters) — Powerful figures with the ear of Russian president Vladimir Putin and a lot to lose when he goes are mounting a campaign to get him to reverse his decision to bow out next year.Analysts say that campaign is led by a loose alliance of officials — nearly all with security backgrounds and grouped around deputy Kremlin chief of staff Igor Sechin — who have built huge power under Putin’s patronage. “A lot of people need a third term,” said Dmitry Oreskhin, an independent political analyst. “For the Sechin group, their well-being and political status depend entirely on Putin. Naturally, they have an interest in preserving the status quo.”

Russia’s constitution limits presidents to two terms. That means, as things stand now, that Putin will have to step down when his second term ends next year. Lobbying for him to stay is not new. Putin is 54, in good health and hugely popular. Many people believe moving him out now will only jeopardise the economic growth and political stability he has overseen.

A poll published this week by pollster VTSIOM showed 69 percent of Russians favour a change to the constitution to allow a third term. The lobbying took on a higher profile this month when Sergei Mironov, the pro-Kremlin speaker of parliament’s upper house and a Sechin ally, said it was time to change the constitution. And he has canvassed the opinion of the country’s regional parliaments on the idea. Mironov was most likely launching a trial balloon on Sechin’s behalf, said Vladimir Pribylovsky, head of the Panorama think tank. “Mironov doesn’t do anything without consultation with people in the Kremlin,” said the analyst.

Not for the first time, the Kremlin this week ruled out a third term. Speaking after Mironov’s statement, deputy Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told an interviewer: “It is definite Putin will leave office in one year.”

Analysts say the Kremlin’s Plan A is for Putin to step down, having recommended to voters that they elect one of his trusted lieutenants to replace him. But the Sechin group has its own ideas, and influence over Putin. Like Putin, Sechin studied in Russia’s second city of St Petersburg and from 1990 worked under the future president in the same department of the city government.

He followed Putin to Moscow and has been described in some Russian media as a major power behind the throne. Sechin is also chairman of state-owned oil firm Rosneft. Putin himself has said many times in public he will not change the constitution to give himself a third term.

He is not a man known for having second thoughts. Going back on his word might involve some loss of face, and would invite accusations from the West that he is flouting the rule of law.

However, if Russia is in a crisis — perhaps a new row with neighbouring Georgia, or a diplomatic clash with the United States — Putin staying on could be presented to the public as an act of self-sacrifice for the good of the country. If no crisis is on the horizon, one could easily be whipped up, said Oreshkin. “It is a standard Russian technique. You do not change horses in mid-stream and correspondingly you need to drive the country into the middle of the stream.”

Sechin and others have other cards to play as they try to persuade Putin to stay put. “One argument is that a successor will trick us,” said Pribylovsky. “He will promise to toe the line but will suddenly trick us.”

Some analysts say though Sechin’s influence in the Kremlin has slipped after he lost a turf war last year with Sergei Ivanov — a first deputy prime minister and one of two frontrunners to replace Putin. But the prospect of Ivanov becoming president could give Sechin even more reason to want his patron to stay. To allow a third term, a law changing the constitution must be approved by two thirds of regional legislatures, two thirds of lawmakers in the lower house of parliament and three quarters of senators in the upper house.

Kremlin loyalists have a solid grip on all these levers of power, so if Putin were to change his mind, getting the amendment approved should not be a problem. What happens then is not clear. The law states the constitution cannot be altered to benefit an incumbent president, only his successor. One theory is that a loophole could be found to make it apply to Putin.

Other possibilities are that Putin could invoke emergency measures to extend his current term, or that a new president could be elected but soon after step down in favour of Putin. Whether he stays or goes, the talk of a third term certainly does Putin no harm, said analyst Pribylovsky. “They (the Kremlin) want to hold on until the last minute to keep everyone in suspense,” he said. “Putin does not want to become a lame duck.”