Seventy-two per cent of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken next year owing to disruptions in trade, technology and resources, says a new report from the World Economic Forum.

The forum’s latest issue of Chief Economists’ Outlook said regional growth pathways are diverging, with more than half of chief economists anticipating greater divergence between advanced and developing economies.

The forum’s managing director, Saadia Zahidi, urged global leaders to adapt with urgency and collaboration to turn today’s turbulence into tomorrow’s resilience.

“The contours of a new economic environment are already taking shape, defined by disruption across trade, technology, resources and institutions,” she said.

Outlook builds on extensive consultations and surveys with chief economists from the public and private sectors, organised by the forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. The report supports the Future of Growth Initiative, aiming to foster dialogue and actionable pathways to sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

Economists surveyed saw the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia emerging as bright spots, with a third of them expecting strong or very strong growth in these regions.

Meanwhile, debt risks are intensifying in advanced economies, with 80 per cent of respondents expecting vulnerabilities to grow.

The outlook for China was more mixed, with 56 per cent of chief economists anticipating moderate growth, though deflationary pressures were expected to persist. Growth was expected to remain more stagnant in advanced economies.

In Europe, 40 per cent of people surveyed expected weak growth with fiscal loosening (74 per cent) and low or moderate inflation (88 per cent).

In the United States, most chief economists (52 per cent) anticipated weak or very weak growth and high inflation (59 per cent) as monetary policy is loosened (85 per cent).

Chief economists warned that advanced and developing economies are on increasingly divergent growth pathways. Fifty-six per cent expected greater divergence over the next three years.

Respondents overwhelmingly agreed that today’s disruptions are structural rather than cyclical.

Large majorities anticipated long-term disruption in natural resources and energy (78 per cent), technology and innovation (75 per cent), trade and global value chains (63 per cent) and global economic institutions (63 per cent).

Outlook said this marks an important shift.

“The global economy is not so much weathering isolated shocks as realigning, raising the stakes for new forms of leadership, co-operation and resilience,” the report stated.

Structural shifts in the global economy are playing out most visibly in trade, fiscal policy and debt.

About 70 per cent of those surveyed rated the present level of trade disruption as very high, far above other domains of the economy and more than three quarters also expect disruption to trade and global value chains to cascade into other domains.

In financial markets and monetary policy, 45 per cent of surveyed economists rated disruption as high or very high, yet only 21 per cent expected it to last. Even so, 52 per cent saw a major near-term crisis in advanced economies as unlikely, while 85 per cent warned that any shock could have wide systemic effects.

With global public debt levels mounting, the people surveyed highlighted that debt vulnerabilities, once largely associated with emerging economies, are increasingly centred in advanced ones.

Eighty per cent expected risks in advanced economies to grow in the year ahead. Fiscal vulnerabilities were also more frequently identified among the top growth inhibitors in advanced economies, 41 per cent, compared with 12 per cent for developing economies.