Hurricane names listed for predicted near-average 2026
The first forecast for the 2026 hurricane season suggests tropical activity for the coming year will stick close to the modern average.
Tropical Storm Risk this month released its extended range hurricane forecast, projecting that the season would be comparable to 2011 and 2017 — citing water temperatures and forecasts of weak El Niño conditions, referring to the vast Pacific Ocean phenomenon that has a global impact on weather.
The organisation forecast a total of 14 named storms over the course of the coming season, including seven hurricanes, three of which are expected to reach at least Category 3 strength.
The prediction was close to the 30-year average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
While TSR noted that the “skill” of such an early forecast was low, it based its estimates on projected sea surface temperatures in the main development region of the North Atlantic as well as expected trade winds for the Caribbean.
The TSR said: “The former is forecast to be warmer than average, leading to an enhancement of Atlantic hurricane activity, and the latter is predicted to be slightly weaker than normal due to predicted warm neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and above-average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea.
“This forecast has high uncertainty due to the possibility of El Niño conditions developing and persisting through summer and autumn 2026.”
The names of storms for this year’s hurricane season will largely match that of the 2020 season, except that Laura has been replaced with Leah.
Laura was formally retired as a hurricane name after Hurricane Laura tore through the Caribbean in August 2020, killing 31 people in Haiti and four in the Dominican Republic before crashing into Louisiana, where it was blamed for the deaths of another 41 people.
This year’s full list includes Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy Vicky and Wilfred.
Any additional storms would have their names selected from a supplemental list.
TSR’s early forecast for the 2025 season suggested there would be 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes, of which three would become major hurricanes.
The 2025 season ended last month with 13 named storms including five hurricanes, of which four became major hurricanes.
You must be Registered or to post comment or to vote.
