'Twas the market before year-end …
Some light-hearted, seasonal reflection on the major economic and investment market events of the past 12 months:
'Twas the night before year-end, and all through the street, not a broker was shouting or stomping their feet. The rates were lowered by the Fed with great care, in hopes that a “soft landing” finally was there.
In Bermuda debt was an issue growing to the moon, but Premier Burt promised relief would be coming quite soon. With the Corporate Income Tax acting as Santa’s big sleigh, to carry the island’s deep burdens away.
With big hopes with DOGE, the budgets were slashed, as Musk cut the funds that the bureaus had stashed. They claimed billions saved by the middle of May, but the sceptics still doubted the price we would pay.
A meeting with Trump, Vance, and Zelensky there, when the tension regarding the war filled the air. The lunch was all cancelled, the deal was denied, leaving doubts about help for the Ukrainian side.
Sad start to the year when the wildfires spread, leaving LA in ashes and dozens left dead. Then July brought the floods to the Guadalupe flow, dealing Texas a sudden and sorrowful blow.
The “51st State” saw the prime minister stepped down, with pressure from rivals and party in town. By the fourteenth of March, Justin bid us adieu, and Carney was sworn in to lead Canada anew.
Private credit wobbled and gave some a fright, but the bond market shrugged and spreads remained tight. And the House in its gridlock, and the Senate in tow, had just settled down for a long winter’s slow.
When on the ticker there rose such a clatter, I ran to my desk to see what was the matter. Away to the Bloomberg I flew like a flash, tore open the charts and examined the cash. The glow on the screen offered a great show, gave the lustre of big gains to indexes below.
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear, but a Bull Market sleigh, and eight bulls devoid of fear. With a little old driver, so lively and quick, I knew in a moment it wasn't a trick.
More rapid than an AI bubble his coursers they came, and he hollered, and shouted, and called them by name: “Now, Crypto! now, Capex! now, Power and Cooling! On, GPUs! on, TPUs! on, Data and EUV Tooling! To the top of the grid! To the firewall! Now rally away! rally away! rally away all!”
And then, in a second, I heard on the roof, the humming and buzzing of each digital hoof. As I drew in my head, and was turning around, down the chimney the economy came with a bound.
He was dressed in protective gear, head to his foot, for the trade war had covered his clothing in soot. A bundle of tariffs was strapped to his back, and he looked quite exhausted when opening his pack.
“The borders are tight!” he exclaimed with a frown, “The cost of shipping is weighing us down! A tax on the steel and a tax on the car, we’re paying a premium for goods from afar!”
But his eyes — how they twinkled, aside from the fright, for another new sector was burning so bright. He turned to the corner, and plugged in a wire, and the data centre stocks rose up higher.
The fans, how they whirred! The GPUs, how they glowed, processing the tokens and bearing the load. They drank up the energy, thirsty and deep, while old utility stocks woke from their sleep.
Agents were summoned, the smart and the keen, the ghosts in the code of the virtual machine. Artificial Intelligence seized the command, and automated the labour all over the land.
They drafted the e-mails, they managed what’s read, “It's the productivity boom!” the economists’ said. With reasoning models so vast and so deep, they made money for some while they were asleep.
2025 was volatile and interesting indeed, political noise stuffed my Bloomberg news feed, but now I wish you and your family great cheer, and a very great and prosperous New Year!
Nathan Kowalski CPA, CA, CFA, CIM, FCSI is the chief financial officer of Anchor Investment Management Ltd and can be contacted at nkowalski@anchor.bm
Author’s Note: This piece is a creative collaboration between the author and Gemini AI. While the themes and final structure were curated by the author, AI was used to assist in the drafting process.
Disclaimer: The sole responsibility for the content of this article lies with the author. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion, policy, or position of Anchor Investment Management Ltd. The content of this article is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy or for any other purpose. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by the author to be reliable. They are not necessarily all-inclusive, are not guaranteed as to the accuracy and are current only at the time written. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
