Chamber urges ‘timely release’ of economic data
A renewed call was made today by the Bermuda Chamber of Commerce for key economic data to be released by the Government on a set schedule to bolster transparency and confidence in the island’s fiscal landscape.
It came after the publication of a second-quarter 2025 GDP report from the Department of Statistics, announced last week by Jason Hayward, the Minister of Economy and Labour — 198 days after the end of the reporting period.
The chamber said: “Given how key these releases are to understanding the health of the local economy and cost-of-living impacts, we again stress the timely release of this information on a set schedule.”
It raised concerns in March last year when data lags were described by the trade organisation as “a silent saboteur”.
The chamber said: “As urged by the chamber and the Fiscal Responsibility Panel, we call for a clear, predictable schedule for key economic data to improve transparency and confidence.”
It also noted the release of retail sales and consumer prices indices, of which the most recent were July 2025 figures published on December 11 — 133 days after the end of the reporting period.
Mr Hayward reported on Wednesday that economic growth slumped during the second quarter of last year, held back by a reduced trade balance owing to an increase in imports.
He said consumer spending was recorded at $841 million while household consumption increased 1 per cent over the previous year.
The chamber provided its own analysis of fourth-quarter 2025 moving totals — taking seasonality into account — for consumption, both personal and government, as well as for capital formation, related to construction and machinery or equipment.
It said the data showed continued economic growth and recovery, although the organisation noted that the measure was still 1.8 per cent behind fourth-quarter 2019 levels.
“The chamber believes that this representation of GDP [gross domestic product] provides a more informed view of the true domestic economy experiences when speaking on GDP,” the business body said.
It noted that the 1.2 per cent year-over-year contraction in real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 appeared to be driven mainly by a widened trade deficit from higher imports.
The chamber explained: “It is important to note that imports of goods, from a GDP accounting perspective, reduces the net economic impact.
“However, for the Bermuda context, this generally reflects positive underlying activity, such as heightened investment and consumer demand, which can drive broader prosperity.
“This highlight one of the potential limitations of relying fully on the final GDP output.”
The chamber said it was encouraged to see a 1 per cent growth in household consumption — as reported by Mr Hayward — and 5.1 per cent increase in gross capital formation from continuing investments and construction, and overall recovery trends.
Mr Hayward reported that employment income during the period was recorded at 6.5 per cent above the previous year’s level.
Increases were logged at 19.9 per cent in the public administration sector, 8.2 per cent in the international business sector, 5.5 per cent in construction, 4.8 per cent in the hotel and restaurant industry, and 2.4 per cent in the business services sector.
Mr Hayward said the increase in the public administration sector came about through salary uplifts for public officers.
While it acknowledged the 6.5 per cent increase in employment income, the chamber said there was no detail on the split of salary increases versus new employees.
It said the public administration expenditure increase figure “is of some concern given this can highlight the potential imbalance relative to the private sector”.
The chamber said some of the increase was as a result of one-time payments per the March 2025 announcement on salary uplift for public officers.
The chamber said recent employment data from the 2025 Bermuda Job Market Employment Briefs indicated overall job growth of 1.8 per cent or 585 filled jobs between 2023 and 2024, reaching 33,451 total filled jobs.
It said the development was a positive sign for economic health and growth prospects.
However, it added: “Bermudian job gains remained modest amid an ageing population and low unemployment, with filled jobs still below pre-pandemic levels for Bermudians.
“We await more granular quarterly breakdowns to better assess balanced growth across local businesses and sectors.”
Last week, Mr Hayward said the number of firms on the local business register rose to 4,048 — a 2.3 per cent increase over the previous year — as 32 new businesses were registered in the domestic economy.
In a first-quarter 2025 GDP report, it was noted that 50 new business were registered.
The chamber questioned the validity of the figures as it noted that it was unknown which businesses were truly operational and hiring staff and at what levels.
It highlighted that notices in the Official Gazette “reveal significant churn, with hundreds of local companies struck off and dissolved”.
The chamber reported that among them were 100 local companies last August and 126 in December, while this month, first notice has been reported for 80 more companies — with final strike-off pending.
“This highlights the cautionary tale of using certain measures, as other measures are required to gauge the domestic entrepreneurial ecosystem’s health, as these strike-offs represent approximately 7.5 per cent of the register”, the chamber said.
On a 12-month moving average basis, the chamber said that the retail sales volume index — based on 2015 constant dollars — has “remained remarkably stable” over the past 11 months, fluctuating narrowly between approximately 90.7 per cent and 90.9 per cent.
“This indicates that the post-Covid decline in real retail volumes has largely plateaued and stabilised, even as monthly figures show some variability,” the chamber said.
As an example, it said in July 2025, volume fell 1.5 per cent year-over-year, whilst value rose 1.1 per cent, reflecting inflation of around 1.6 per cent.
The chamber said: “The continued upward trend in retail sales value highlights the ongoing impact of price increases and cost pressures in the local market.
“Context is important when interpreting longer-term trends.”
In the tourism sector, the chamber said it “eagerly awaits” an announcement on the planned opening of the Fairmont Southampton.
This will be a key factor in continuing to see airlift improvements in terms of size of aircraft and destinations, it said.
The chamber noted that the iconic hotel will play an “integral part” in supporting international business activities as well as providing additional opportunities for the domestic market.
It earlier expressed concern around the availability of the required labour pool to support the hotel’s operation.
• To see the statement in full, see Related Media
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