Emerging markets may face a bumpier road this year as global political flashpoints add stress to sovereign and corporate credit profiles, according to a new Fitch Ratings analysis. Analysts at the credit-rating agency say shifting American foreign policy and more geopolitical friction could test borrowers across developing economies in 2026.

Fitch’s first quarterly credit brief of the year cautions that events such as the United States removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January could send ripple effects through Latin America and beyond. At the same time, transatlantic strain over issues like Greenland is adding pressure on defence budgets in Eastern Europe and raising concerns over possible escalation with Russia.

Despite those risks, Fitch’s baseline outlook assumes a neutral macro-credit environment for emerging markets this year, broadly similar to 2025. The agency expects global growth to hold fairly steady, central banks to continue gradual policy easing and uncertainty around US trade measures to be less volatile than last year.

Oil and commodity prices remain key variables. Lower crude prices tend to help energy importers, but they can erode revenue for exporters. At the same time, soaring gold prices have bolstered reserves in some economies.

Fitch also noted that funding and liquidity conditions should stay favourable for most emerging-market issuers in 2026. However, the gulf between resilient financial markets and ongoing uncertainties could still fuel volatility for them.