HE has, like other reluctant champions before him, what the journalist and biographer Lowell Thomas once memorably described as a genius for backing into the limelight.

In recent months Sir John Swan's cogent analyses of the Bermudian political scene and, more importantly, his warnings about the long-term ramifications of short-term, self-serving expedients being pursued by the current Government have resounded with a public hungry for leadership.

He has in effect filled the vacuum created by a Government which views accountability, both in the political and moral senses, with bemused disdain and an Opposition still wrestling with a protracted political identity crisis.

With the leadership of the current Government either muzzling or sidelining its more competent Cabinet Ministers and backbenchers and the Opposition, presumably still being driven by polls rather than iron-clad principles, hoping for a win on points rather than a knock-out at the next General Election, Sir John's voice is echoing more loudly than might otherwise be the case. And it is being listened to.

Sir John is viewed by an increasing number of a Bermudians as a cross between unofficial Opposition Leader and secular Pope. He hosts audiences almost every day in his Victoria Street offices, with everyone from garbage men to international businessmen among the supplicants. All of these petitioners are encouraging him to return to active political duty, all are swearing unwavering allegiance to the man they see as the once-and-future Premier.

Impromptu Draft Swan movements have spontaneously emerged, to borrow one of his favourite phrases, from the back of town to Tucker's Town to Middletown. Ridiculously representative of the island's demographics, these cabals of supporters share a combination of disappointment and dismay with the Government leadership's policy of rule by stealth, pessimism over the lengthening odds against either the Premier being replaced by the time the next election is called or a United Bermuda Party rally and unalloyed nostalgia for a period when the island was led by an able man with vision, enthusiasm and a sense of purpose that, by and large, mirrored the aspirations of Bermudians.

Yet Sir John did not purposefully set about reinventing himself.

When he exited the political arena in 1998, it was meant to be a more of less permanent departure.

He had resigned as Premier in 1995, when the outcome of the Independence referendum went against him. In retrospect, his arguments for going to Independence under his stewardship - when Bermuda's final constitutional parameters could have been determined in all-party negotiations with the British, when it would have still been possible to renegotiate the terms of the bases deal with the Americans to Bermuda's advantage - are more compelling now than they seemed at the time.

The uncharacteristically shambolic manner in which the Swan Independence campaign unfolded speaks to both his mounting desperation in trying to rouse a sleep-walking support base to what invariably lay ahead and masterful political checkmating by then-Opposition Leader Frederick Wade. Mr. Wade, of course, successfully called for PLP supporters to boycott the referendum, denying Sir John the votes of a constituency primed for Bermudian Independence since the 1950s.

Sir John's credibility was on the Independence ballot papers along with the "Yes" and "No" boxes. He correctly interpreted the referendum as a vote on his leadership as well as Bermudian sovereignty, resigning as Premier when the outcome revealed he was either out of step with the Bermudian electorate - or a few steps ahead of it, depending on your interpretation.

When a later private business venture became a minor-key public scandal - and the unlikely catalyst that rent an already Independence-divided UBP completely asunder - he bowed out of politics entirely, resigning his Parliamentary seat in the run-up to the last General Election.

His ingrained understanding that public figures are ultimately answerable to the public they serve stands in marked contrast to the grotesque official high-handedness of recent years. The current Government's inner circle demands unwavering obedience from its followers and simply pays no heed to either its critics or, in an increasing number of instances, due process, custom and past precedent.

Bizarrely but perhaps not altogether surprisingly a testy minority of UBP hardliners have demanded public apologies from Sir John for both Independence and the McDonald's fiasco, remaining wilfully blind to the fact he made the most public acts of contrition imaginable with his twin resignations.

THOSE who grumblingly and selectively invoke the past as an argument against Sir John's possible return to the political stage are presumably more concerned with score-settling than in addressing the grim realities of the present and forestalling the even bleaker future scenarios the former Premier has done more than anyone else to publicly anticipate.

Such superannuated diehards only provide succour to the current Government's leadership. They divert attention away from the low-intensity civil war the Cabinet Office is now embroiled in with its own backbenches and provide what is seized upon as prima facie evidence that the UBP is quite as backward-looking and vengeance-obsessed as the PLP is accused of being.

Whatever grudges the vestiges of Bermuda's increasingly irrelevant old guard still harbour against John Swan pale into insignificance when every scientific or straw poll of voting intentions suggests the independent voters who comprise 30 per cent of the Bermudian electorate - and who opted for the PLP on a two-to-one basis in 1998 - would swing pendulum-like back to a UBP headed by the former Premier. The other 70 per cent of voters are divided almost evenly between the UBP and the PLP. So it is those who prefer to remain unaffiliated with either political party except on polling day rather than the stalwarts who decide the outcomes of Bermudian elections. Clearly realpolitik rather than the politics of revenge should guide the words and actions of those within the UBP camp who remain intractably opposed to a Swan restoration.

Deeply concerned with a Government that is in the process of invalidating Bermuda's First World bona fides and humbled by the efforts to entice him back into the political arena - his natural environment - it is nevertheless by no means a given that Sir John can be persuaded to return to the sturm und drang of public life, either as UBP leader (and there are no indications that Dr. Grant Gibbons believes he is simply keeping the former Premier's seat warm for him) or as a superheavyweight candidate.

He faces not insignificant opposition from family members who believe he has more than discharged his duty to Bermuda. They argue that it's time for a new generation of Bermudians, beneficiaries of a buoyant economic environment Sir John's policies are largely responsible for having created, to put public service ahead of personal gain, to contribute of their time and skills instead of simply profiteering from the selflessness of others.

It's difficult to take issue with such a position.

Those who benefited the most academically, professionally and financially in the super-charged economy that emerged here following passage of the US/Bermuda Tax Treaty are, as a rule, the least likely to contribute to maintaining the island's enviable socio-political environment. The scarcity of overachieving Parliamentary candidates being fielded by both political parties is a reflection of this sad reality (the National Liberal Party continues to be a figment of its handful of members' collective imagination).

The problem is not just a chronic lack of public spiritedness (although this is a contributing factor). Despite the manifest shortcomings and epic missteps of the current Government, many of those with the most to contribute to public life remain unconvinced the UBP as presently constituted is in a position to win the next election, even by default. So they are not willing to risk their reputations or take time away from their business activities fighting for what they anticipate will very likely be a losing cause.

HOWEVER, the force of the Swan personality being what is, it's all but certain that any number of viable, vote-winning candidates who would ordinarily not be attracted by the UBP's gravitational pull would be willing to contest Parliamentary seats under his leadership.

Sir John is now playing a variation on the role of Prince Hamlet, not so much a man who cannot make up his mind as one who is all too keenly aware of the disappointment his final decision will cause to either his supporters or his family.

Ironically, Sir John has made himself all but indispensable in a field where so many men and women are expendable because perhaps his greatest strength is his ability to identify Bermuda's weaknesses - economic, socio-ethnic and structural.

The Wolfgang Sterrer or Stuart Hayward of its man-made environment, he has an instinctive understanding of just how delicately balanced Bermuda's infrastructure really is and what is required to maintain it.

Ultimately, it is this preternatural sensitivity to Bermuda's well-being that will determine whether Sir John remains in the limelight - or gingerly backs out of it again.