The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has maintained its forecast for a below-average hurricane season as the normal peak approaches.

In a mid-season update on Saturday, NOAA forecasters said that the 2026 hurricane season would include between seven and 13 named storms, including between two and six hurricanes.

Of those hurricanes, it is expected that two or fewer would become major hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength.

Those figures include the two named storms already recorded in the season, Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha.

In a statement, the administration said: “NOAA forecasters predict a 75 per cent chance for below-normal activity, with a 20 per cent chance of a near-normal season and just a 5 per cent chance of above-normal activity.

“This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.

“In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.”

The NOAA said the onset of El Niño conditions in June played a significant role in the forecast along with near-average temperatures in the Atlantic and a neutral West African monsoon.

Matt Rosencrans, a lead hurricane season forecaster for the NOAA’s National Weather Service, said: “When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month.

“Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”

The NOAA warned that the seasonal outlook was not a forecast of how many storms would make landfall.

The forecast was down slightly from the body’s May forecast, which predicted between eight and 14 named storms, with three to six hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes.

As of yesterday afternoon, the NOAA was monitoring three areas in the Atlantic for potential development.

The most likely to become a storm was a low-pressure system a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde islands, which was given a 60 per cent chance of becoming a named storm in the next week as it drifts westward.

A low-pressure system northwest of Bermuda was given a 10 per cent chance of developing in the coming days as it moves east, while a broad area of thunderstorms about midway between West Africa and the Lesser Antilles was given similarly low odds of development.