The quiet storm season has cemented the price softening Bermuda reinsurers were warning about at Monte Carlo, according to new findings from Aon.

The broker’s latest catastrophe review provides a fresh data point for Bermuda’s reinsurance market as it heads towards January renewals: global insured losses stood at $91 billion through September, with no individual event over $10 billion. Although the total is slightly above the long-term average, it is the lowest nine-month figure since 2019 and well below the recent five-year average.

“The overall loss picture for the re/insurance industry has not changed since the end of the second quarter: with generally manageable losses and without any major $10-billion-plus events,” Aon wrote.

The benign claims environment comes as Bermuda’s major property-cat reinsurers cope with a market already seeing abundant capital and two years of falling prices. A Fitch survey published after the Rendez-Vous de Septembre in Monte Carlo found that 60 per cent of respondents expected further property-cat rate reductions at the January 2027 renewals, while 86 per cent anticipated some loosening in terms and conditions.

The Aon report does not forecast renewal pricing, but it adds weight to the buyer-friendly conditions described by Fitch. A lack of large loss events means reinsurers can hold onto capital, even as they decide whether to deploy it or return it to shareholders.

Aon estimated that US severe convective storms generated more than $43 billion of insured losses in the first nine months, while European drought produced an estimated $8.5 billion of insured claims, much of it tied to subsidence damage.

Aon wrote: “The contrast between lower overall losses and continued frequency of significant events reinforces the importance of looking beyond headline totals to understand how the risk landscape is evolving.”

The Bermuda Monetary Authority said Bermuda accounted for about 92 per cent of global alternative reinsurance capital in 2024. ILS funds represented roughly 8 per cent of Bermuda’s regulated funds market, up from 5 per cent a year earlier, with net asset value of $13.71 billion.

The Bermuda Stock Exchange listed 169 new catastrophe bond notes and ILS structures worth nearly $17.8 billion in the first nine months of 2026. At the end of September, it was home to 731 cat bonds and related ILS listings — almost 93 per cent of the addressable global market, valued at $67.4 billion.

The market is also expanding beyond the North American hurricane risks on which it was built. Aon’s August ILS report put global alternative capital at a record $144.5 billion, including $63.4 billion of outstanding cat bonds and $23 billion of sidecar capital across property and casualty lines.

This week’s Aon report’s September 30 cut-off excludes Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall in Florida in early October. Aon said fourth-quarter activity, including the storm, would probably lift annual insured losses above $100 billion.

However, preliminary estimates of $1 billion to $4 billion suggest Isaias is an earnings event rather than a market-resetting loss.