As in 1998, the shortage of affordable housing will be at the top of the list of issues in the upcoming General Election.

Five years ago, the then-governing United Bermuda Party said the problem was not the overall supply of housing, but the lack of affordable homes. Even so, it put in place plans to construct 100 new homes.

In addition, homes were due to come on line for sale from Southside, which again would alleviate demand as first-time homeowners moved and made their existing rented home available again.

The UBP was also opposed to expanding the number of homes covered by rent control. Rather than controlling rents, which is a disincentive to construction of new homes and maintenance of existing homes, it set up the Housing Assistance Programme, which subsidised tenants in financial need.

Regardless of what was promised, it did not wash with voters. In spite of the promises, the UBP came across as indifferent to the plight of those who said they could not find a decent place to live.

The then-Opposition Progressive Labour Party took full advantage of that. It promised to "fully utilise" the then-vacant housing stock available through the Bermuda Housing Corporation, to make more Southside homes available, to review HAP schemes to supplement rents that exceeded one quarter of household income and to provide incentives for private developers to build new homes or rehabilitate derelict properties.

Almost five years later, the situation is, to some extent, reversed.

The UBP is now promising to provide incentives to developers, and is protesting the fact that people are having to pay far more than a quarter of their income on housing - the same complaint the PLP had in 1998.

The Government's record is patchy.

Some of the homes earmarked for first-time homeowners at Southside were instead converted to low-cost housing, which was essentially a different way of skinning the same cat, while reducing the attractiveness of the overall neighbourhood for potential home buyers.

A number of homes have been renovated through the BHC, but questions of where the money used for rehabilitation has gone has destroyed the credibility of the programme.

Similarly, the Perryville development in Warwick, which the BHC built as condos for first-time homeowners has become a symbol of Corporation waste after they cost $400 a square foot to build - approximately double the market cost. At the same time, the heightened costs effectively increased the proposed sale price by 50 percent - and the BHC will still lose money on them.

Now the Government is taking up the old UBP line of saying that the problem is the supply of affordable homes and there are claims of vacant homes littering the community.

To some extent, the UBP was right in 1998 and the PLP is correct now. But the problem is one of simple economics. The 2000 Census shows that Bermuda's changing demographics mean that demand has dramatically outstripped supply in the last decade.

Bermuda's population increased by six percent from 1991 to 2000, but the number of households rose by 12 percent, with the number of one-person and two-person households rising dramatically. There were 23 percent more single households and 12 percent more two-person households than there were in 1991.

The number of households with four or more people declined.

In the same period, the number of new dwelling units added to the housing stock rose by just six percent.

To put this another way, 1,485 new dwelling units were added between 1991 and 2000, but there were 2,718 more households. With 1,233 more households than new homes, how can you not have a housing crisis?

Since then, the price of land has soared, mainly because developable open land is running out. And construction prices have jumped because the construction industry is overheated with home and office construction.

Only now is construction of new apartment buildings in North Hamilton beginning to take place after being talked about for years. As that comes on line, demand will begin to ease.

A good deal of top end residential housing is also being built at places like Tucker's Point, Belmont and now Sonesta Beach. To the degree that residents are taking the homes, this will ease the shortage. What is less positive is that the homes are available for sale to non-Bermudians thus taking some of them out of the local market.

What is needed now is some intelligent discussion on the causes of the problem and some equally intelligent answers found. Simplistic calls for rent control or increased housing subsidies are not enough.

Somehow - without paving over what little open land Bermuda has left - supply and demand have to be brought back into balance.