The Progressive Labour Party has a lead over the One Bermuda Alliance for the first time in more than a year, according to a poll commissioned by The Royal Gazette .

The PLP has a 38-35 advantage in the survey by Global Research from November 18 to 25, compared with the 38-37 lead held by the OBA in our last poll in September.

It means the PLP has gained 15 points over its rival in the past year, having trailed by 42-30 in December 2015.

Some 27 per cent of people refused to back either party, including 1 per cent saying they would vote for an independent candidate.

The OBA does score a higher performance approval rating than the PLP, with 25 per cent of people approving and 44 per cent disapproving of the ruling party; with 20 per cent approving and 45 per cent disapproving of the Opposition.

Among the party leaders and deputies, Michael Dunkley, the Premier, retains his position at the top of the performance approval ratings, despite a six-point drop. But a new trust rating shows that none of the four leading politicians is trusted by more than three out of ten people, with the parties faring even worse.

The telephone survey of 400 registered voters has a margin of error of +/- 5 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.

The proportion of people who said they would be absolutely certain to vote at a General Election has increased from 61 per cent to 66 per cent, including a rise from 55 per cent of blacks to 63 per cent.

A breakdown by race shows that, among whites, 76 per cent would vote OBA, down from 78 per cent, and 4 per cent would vote PLP, unchanged from September.

Among blacks, 55 per cent would vote PLP, down from 63 per cent, and 15 per cent would vote OBA, up from 14 per cent. The PLP comfortably has the female vote, by 39-31, with the OBA leading the male vote by 39-38.

The PLP is scoring well with the young generation, winning among the 18 to 34 age bracket by 41-24, and among the 35 to 44 age bracket by 46-31. In the previous poll, the PLP was leading 56-25 among the 18 to 34 group, but the OBA was in front 41-33 among the 35 to 44 group.

The poll also shows a spike in the number of young people saying they do not know how the political parties are performing. Some 7 per cent of people aged 18 to 34 said they do not know how the OBA is performing, compared with zero people aged over 55; and 9 per cent of people aged 18 to 34 saying they do not know how the PLP is performing, compared with zero over the age of 45.

Mr Dunkley’s performance approval rating is 36 per cent, down from 42 per cent in September. He gets support from 65 per cent of whites and 22 per cent of blacks, down three points and five points respectively. He is backed by 40 per cent of men and 32 per cent of women, and draws most support from the older generation, with 51 per cent of those aged over 65, compared with 21 per cent from the 18 to 34 age group.

David Burt, the shadow finance minister who took over as PLP leader from Marc Bean last month, has a performance approval rating of 30 per cent, down from 37 per cent. Mr Burt gets approval from 42 per cent of blacks and 5 per cent of whites.

Bob Richards, the finance minister and OBA deputy leader, sees his approval rating drop from 25 per cent to 19 per cent. Mr Richards is approved by 44 per cent of whites and 7 per cent of blacks.

Walter Roban, the newly elected deputy leader of the PLP, has a 15 per cent approval rating, with 21 per cent backing from blacks and 3 per cent from whites.

The trust rating was introduced for this poll, with Mr Dunkley and Mr Burt scoring 30 per cent, Mr Richards 18 per cent and Mr Roban 17 per cent. The PLP scored 23 per cent and the OBA 18 per cent.

General favourability ratings were also awarded, with Mr Dunkley scoring 42 per cent, Mr Burt 35 per cent, Mr Richards 22 per cent and Mr Roban 19 per cent.