year.

The storms are named to prevent confusion when more than one storm is active at a time. The names are chosen by a committee of the World Meteorological Organization and intended to represent the ethnic makeup of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Names selected for this year's tropical storms are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Keith, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William.

Experts have predicted fewer storms during this year's hurricane season, which starts on June 1, but warned that Bermuda was in for a stormier time than normal.

Colorado State University's Dr. Bill Gray, one of the few experts willing to make long-range storm predictions, said the increased storm activity over the past five years should continue, perhaps for the next 20 years.

For 2000, he has predicted 11 named storms, including seven hurricanes. Three of them will be major, he added, with sustained winds of 110 miles per hour or more.

Last year Dr. Gray predicted 14 named storms and said he expected nine of them to become hurricanes and four of them to be classified as major.

There ended up being 12 named storms. Eight became hurricanes and five were ranked as major.

Dr. Gray has studied hurricane patterns in history and said the trend of more and fewer storms is cyclical and not related to pollution or global warming.

Bermuda Weather Service manager Roger Williams said: "It will be a slightly less active season this year according to Dr. Gray but we are somewhat above the long-term average in terms of overall activity.'' Mr. Williams said changes in winds in the upper stratosphere would help calm things down.

The diminishing affects of the La Nina cycle, which promotes warmer waters in the western part of the Pacific, which, in turn, encourages cyclone activity in this part of the globe, will also hinder cyclone development.

However increased rainfall in Western Africa, which tends to follow through by creating storms in the Atlantic, means storm likelihood in the Bermuda region was still likelier than normal.

Mr. Williams said: "There are a number of factors. You juggle them up and come up with these figures which are slightly higher than normal.'' A major difference between now and the busy storm period in the early part of this century, Dr. Gray observed, was that many more people now live in harm's way.

According to census figures, the population in Gulf and Atlantic coast states from Texas to Virginia rose from a little more than 24 million in 1930 to about 64 million in 1990.

But over the last three decades, forecasters have gotten better at predicting where the storms will go, researchers Colin McAdie and Miles Lawrence reported in the May issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

They found that from 1970 to 1998 track forecast errors decreased by about one percent per year for the 24-hour forecast.

"On a yearly basis, it's a small improvement, but one that yields a cumulative benefit,'' said Mr. McAdie.

"The 24-hour forecast error expected 30 years ago of about 140 miles has been reduced to about 100 miles today.'' Last week a new weather satellite was launched that can be pressed into service this summer if needed. The $220 million GOES-L satellite, operated by Florida's National Hurricane Center, was delayed a year.

The forecasters rely on two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites to monitor tropical storms and other severe weather. The East Coast's GOES-8, however, is a year beyond its design lifetime.

Although still working, it could break down at any moment. GOES-L is a crucial backup.

Bermuda Weather Service Meteorologist Kimberley Stevenson said: "Anything which helps the National Hurricane Centre helps the Bermuda Weather Service because we take their forecasts. They forecast for the Atlantic.''