Meteorologists have forecast that El Niño has already begun to weaken, which could affect the upcoming hurricane season.

El Niño, a weather phenomenon that causes warmer sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is known to generate wind shear in the Atlantic, which hinders tropical storm development.

However, the US-based Climate Prediction Centre forecast this month that the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle was likely to transition to a neutral state between April and June.

“During January 2024, above-average sea-surface temperatures continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,” the CPC said.

“SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero.

“Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 metres of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths.”

The CPC added that evidence indicated that the ENSO would become neutral this spring, with La Niña potentially developing during the summer.

La Niña conditions have been known to reduce wind shear in the Atlantic, encouraging hurricane development.

“Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events,” the CPC said.

“The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña.”

The CPC estimated that there was a 79 per cent chance that the ENSO would be neutral by April or June, and that there was a 55 per cent chance of La Niña developing by June or August 2024.

The 2024 hurricane season begins on June 1 and will continue until November 30.