Consecutive population declines are threatening to impact growth and weaken the island’s tax base, the head of the Bermuda Chamber of Commerce has warned.

Marico Thomas, the chamber president, also proposed that a series of measures such as improvement in work-permit processing can adequately address the problem.

He spoke after figures in the 2024 Digest of Statistics, released by the Department of Statistics, indicated a decline of the island’s population for the sixth consecutive year, with the number of deaths exceeding births by 186.

Accounting for birth and death data subsequent to the 2016 Population and Housing Census, the report stated that Bermuda’s estimated population at the end of 2024 fell to 63,356.

The Ministry of Economy and Labour has said despite the continuing declines, the economy remains “resilient”, there are job and GDP increases, and the Government is taking deliberate action to ensure “continued prosperity”.

Mr Thomas said the population decline has “very real effects” on Bermuda’s economy.

He explained: “As we lose people, we lose workers, customers and business activity.

“Fewer people working means fewer people producing goods and services, while fewer people living here means less spending at local businesses.

“This affects everything from retail to real estate.”

He said businesses face a shrinking pool of available talent and this, he noted, makes hiring more difficult and could drive up labour costs.

The ministry spokesman acknowledged the decline and highlighted that the population change is measured based on natural increase [births minus deaths].

He said: “During the intercensal period, our recourse is population projections and population estimates. However, it’s important to note that our economy remains resilient and continues to perform strongly.

“In 2023, the number of occupied jobs increased by 3 per cent, with growth seen across nearly all major age groups and occupational categories.

“This positive momentum carried into 2024, with the economy exceeding expectations.

“Real GDP increased by 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, capping off the year with strong economic expansion. In nominal terms, GDP grew by at least 7.3 per cent during the same period.

“Additionally, earlier estimates for the second and third quarters of 2024 have been revised upward, reflecting stronger performance than initially reported.

“These figures underscore the fact that despite demographic challenges, Bermuda’s economy is growing, adapting and generating opportunities.”

A few “useful steps” that could be implemented by the Government would make a great difference, Mr Thomas said.

On work permits, he said the process could be improved especially for sectors where there are known shortages including healthcare, hospitality, construction and information technology.

He said the island can continue to invest and bring attention to training and apprenticeship opportunities to prepare Bermudians of varying ages and circumstances for available jobs.

He also noted that incentives can be created to encourage owners to rent out vacant apartments or underused homes, and he suggested that planning approvals for smaller housing projects that add supply quickly can be sped up.

“These could all help stabilise our workforce and housing market without major policy shifts,” he added.

The Government said its Economic Development Strategy is central to its efforts in stimulating economic activity, expanding job opportunities and supporting the development of a sustainable, expanding workforce.

It said the strategy is built on business retention and expansion, business attraction, small business development and investing in people.

The ministry spokesman added: “Each of these pillars is aligned with the goal of increasing workforce participation and economic output.

“In addition, the Consultation on Retaining the Local Workforce Position Paper 2024 outlines 25 targeted research, policy and legislative initiatives. These proposals are focused on supporting Bermudians in the workforce, improving job retention and fostering professional development.”

Asked whether the decline could affect health premiums, Mr Thomas said: “A smaller population means fewer people paying into the system through insurance premiums and taxes, while at the same time, we have more older residents needing care.”

He said this puts a financial strain on the system and can make healthcare more expensive for everyone.

“On top of that, if we have fewer young Bermudians coming into healthcare careers, we’ll need to bring in more nurses, caregivers and specialists from overseas,” he added.

He said a population decline makes it harder to fund and staff healthcare, and could have a domino effect, not only on business but on families and the entire community.

The ministry spokesman admitted that there are implications for the sustainability of the healthcare system, adding: “The island spends approximately $750 million annually on healthcare, with a significant portion of that cost funded through employer-based health insurance.

“As more Bermudians reach retirement age and exit the workforce, the number of contributors to the healthcare financing pool is expected to decline.

“Actuarial models project that healthcare costs will continue to rise over the next 15 years, largely due to the increased care needs of people aged 65 and over.

“That said, the Government is taking these trends seriously and is actively exploring long-term strategies to rebalance and protect the healthcare system. These include considering adjustments in healthcare contributions, reviewing how care is funded and delivered, and investing in preventive health and wellness programmes.”

The issue and Bermuda’s housing crisis are joined at the hip, Mr Thomas said.

The two matters will be up for discussion at an upcoming town hall of the Bermuda Chamber of Commerce on June 12.

According to the Digest of Statistics, the number of births on the island decreased year-to-year by 9 per cent to 436 for another record low since its record keeping began in 1940.

Additionally, the number of deaths increased by 6 per cent to 622.

In 2022, the Government said it aimed to raise the working population by 25 per cent over a five-year period in an “aggressive” strategy to head off a rapidly ageing population.

Titled Addressing the Challenge of an Ageing Population in Bermuda, it outlined strategies in emigration, immigration, new business development and labour policy changes.