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‘Worst-case’ model predicts 3,000 admissions

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More than 3,000 people could be hospitalised as a result of Covid-19, with 981 of them requiring critical care, a worst-case scenario released by the Bermuda Government warned yesterday.

The figure of 3,096 would equate to a peak of 78 hospital admissions a day next month — with 25 of them critical care patients.

Disease modelling revealed by the health ministry showed the “better case” scenario was a total of 1,030 people admitted to hospital, with 359 in critical care.

The Government earlier revealed the worst-case scenario death rate estimate of 718 and the better case scenario estimate of 263 deaths.

The new figures were contained in the Modelling Estimates for Bermuda and Potential Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions report.

The document outlined a worst-case scenario of 1,363 infections a day with a peak between May 22 and 25, and a total of 54,109 people predicted to get infected.

A better-case scenario suggested 291 infections a day with a peak between September 6 and 15, and a total of 17,540 infected.

The model will be updated on a regular basis.

The document underlined the importance of precautions such as social-distancing, school closures and quarantines — called non-pharmaceutical interventions — which were predicted to reduce peak critical care demand by two thirds and halve the number of deaths if used in combination.

A statement attached to the model said that Public Health England had recommended using a “reasonable worst-case scenario” as a planning tool.

The government statement added: “Information for both the worst-case scenario and a better-case scenario was estimated using modelling based on modelling done by Imperial College London and incorporating local population data and mortality rates.

“The impacts of Covid-19 are age-dependent and Public Health England has indicated that Bermuda could fare worse due to our slightly older population.”

Kim Wilson, the health minister, said: “It's crucial to know that the numbers generated through this, or any other, model cannot be interpreted as predictions of what will occur during the current Covid-19 pandemic.

“Rather, they must be treated as estimates of what might happen based on the assumptions used in generating these estimates and the modelling strategy used.”

The statement on the figures warned against becoming “fixated on the exact numbers”.

The statement added: “There are very large uncertainties around the transmission of this virus, the likely effectiveness of different policies and the extent to which the population spontaneously adopts risk-reducing behaviours.

“Local real-time data and intelligence is crucial to assess what is happening locally and the impact on healthcare capacity.”

To read the modelling documents in full, click on the PDF links under “Related Media”.

Dy-juan DeRoza, of the Ministry of Health, at the press conference yesterday (Photograph by Blaire Simmons)
Estimates of Covid-19-related hospital admissions per day, best-case scenario and worst-case scenario (Graphic from the Bermuda Government)
Estimates of Covid-19 infections per day, best-case scenario and worst-case scenario (Graphic from the Bermuda Government)
Estimates of Covid-19 critical care hospital admissions per day, best-case scenario and worst-case scenario (Graphic from the Bermuda Government)
Estimates of Covid-19 deaths per day, best-case scenario and worst-case scenario (Graphic from the Bermuda Government)

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Published April 25, 2020 at 9:00 am (Updated April 25, 2020 at 9:00 am)

‘Worst-case’ model predicts 3,000 admissions

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