Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the top global risk for 2026, with a volatile outlook for trade, finance and global co-operation that could have knock-on effects for international financial centres such as Bermuda, according to a new report from the World Economic Forum.

Preceding the forum which has opened this week in Switzerland with a record number of the world’s political and business leaders, the Global Risks Report 2026, was issued Wednesday.

Also attending the 56th annual meeting in Davos this year is David Burt, the Premier and Minister of Finance.

It found that rising geopolitical rivalries, weaponised economic policies and growing fragmentation of the global order are converging with economic pressures such as inflation, debt and market volatility.

Eighteen per cent of respondents ranked geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis this year, placing it first in the near-term outlook and top for severity over the next two years — a jump of eight places from last year.

Half of the more than 1,300 leaders and experts surveyed expect the global outlook over the next two years to be “turbulent or stormy”, with only 1 per cent anticipating calm conditions. Over a ten-year horizon, nearly six in ten expect sustained turbulence.

In a world of prolonged conflicts and strategic competition, the report warns that supply chains, cross-border investment and global financial stability are more and more vulnerable.

State-based armed conflict ranked second for 2026, while extreme weather, societal polarisation, and misinformation and disinformation rounded out the top five near-term risks.

Economic risks showed the sharpest rise overall. Fears of an economic downturn and inflation both climbed eight places in the two-year outlook, while the risk of asset-price bubbles rose seven places to 18th. Mounting debt levels combined with geopolitical stress could spark renewed volatility in financial markets, the report cautioned.

Technology-related risks are also accelerating. Misinformation and disinformation ranked second in the two-year outlook, while cyber insecurity placed sixth. Adverse outcomes linked to artificial intelligence rose sharply in longer-term rankings.

Environmental risks declined in the short-term rankings as immediate political and economic pressures took precedence. However, over the next decade they remain the most severe threats, led by extreme weather, biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems.

Three-quarters of respondents expect a turbulent environmental outlook, the most pessimistic assessment of any risk category.

The Forum said the findings highlight the need for stronger co-operation at a time when the global system is becoming more fragmented, even as economies remain deeply interconnected.