The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be active, with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, roughly 125 per cent of the average between 1991 and 2020. That’s according to a preseason outlook from Howden Re, the Bermudian-based reinsurance broker, echoed by nine other forecasting institutions compiled in a recent Moody’s report.

One standout figure from Colorado State University, cited by Moody’s, is the 51 per cent probability of a major hurricane making US landfall, higher than the long-term average of 43 per cent. According to Moody’s, that could worsen financial impacts, especially as inflation drives up the cost of materials and labour, and lead to higher insured losses.

The latest modelling from major institutions including Colorado State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts agrees that an active season is likely.

The ECMWF’s AI-enhanced seasonal model, which outperformed others in 2023 and 2024, also supports this.

While the consensus points to above-average activity, Moody’s notes that storm intensity is likely to be lower than in 2024, when there were 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, which measures storm energy, is projected to reach 137, which is above normal, but still below last year’s Ace Index of 162.

“This year’s set-up looks a lot like some of our most active seasons,” the Howden Re report stated, pointing to similarities in ocean heat content and El Niño-Southern Oscillation patterns seen in years with high storm counts and major landfalls.

The forecast is driven by a mix of abnormally warm Atlantic waters, a transition from weak La Niña to neutral Enso conditions, and favourable West African monsoon activity. While a neutral Enso might sound harmless, Howden notes that it often behaves like La Niña, reducing wind shear and allowing hurricanes to form more easily.

Short-term atmospheric bursts known as Madden–Julian Oscillations could also trigger spikes throughout the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, according to the reports.

“While the total number of storms may be above average, even a single landfalling hurricane in a densely populated region could drive significant impact,“ the Howden Re report stated.

Reinsurers remain alert, even as pricing for catastrophe cover has eased slightly. Moody’s reports that reinsurance rates declined 6.2 per cent in January 2025 amid growing market capacity. However, demand remains strong, and terms and conditions stay firm, even after recent wildfire-related losses.