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Hurricane modelling tool offers enhanced risk view

Strong waves from Hurricane Fiona hit Astwood Park, Warwick, in September 2022 (Photograph by Akil Simmons)

Reinsurers and insurers may soon get a sharper view of Atlantic hurricane risks after Florida regulators approved version 25 of Moody’s RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models for use in residential rate filings.

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology gave the green light to this latest version, which includes updates informed by the 2023-24 hurricane seasons, refined event and geocoding data, and reanalysed historical storms. The model is now available through Moody’s Risk Modeller and RiskLink platforms.

“We are proud to continue our nearly 30‑year track record of meeting FCHLPM requirements by gaining FCHLPM certification under the latest standards,” said Matthew Nielsen, senior vice-president of regulatory affairs at Moody’s. He added: “This important benchmark underscores the continued quality and reliability of our North Atlantic Hurricane Models for the market.”

Version 25 was calibrated and validated using more than $75  billion in detailed, trended claims data, including major losses from storms since 2016. Moody’s analysts say this adds depth to modelling and should give insurers a better tool for assessing risk and setting premiums.

The approval is timely as Moody’s Insurance Solutions team prepares its 2025 hurricane season report, after its 2024 catastrophe review, and launches new visual tools tracking flood risks.

The improved data and more accurate storm simulations could help reinsurers manage underwriting more effectively and better price coverage.

With storms growing in frequency and intensity, Moody’s move signals a push towards more data-driven and science-based solutions in managing natural catastrophe exposure across North America and the Caribbean, the company said.

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Published June 17, 2025 at 7:57 am (Updated June 17, 2025 at 7:38 am)

Hurricane modelling tool offers enhanced risk view

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