Aeolus Capital Management Ltd and Cornell University have launched a research collaboration focused on hurricane track modelling using “what-if” scenarios based on the opposite of how real events occurred.

The study is led by Pete Dailey, head of research at Bermudian-based Aeolus, and an expert in climate catastrophe model development and analytics. The study will model hurricane landfall risk using an open-source hurricane hazard model developed by Jonathan Lin, assistant professor of Earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell.

Dr Dailey said: “We’re delighted to work with Dr Lin to develop innovative applications of his hurricane track and intensity model. Counterfactual analysis considers scenarios that run counter to what actually played out in a real-world event. CFA asks ‘what if’ these scenarios had played out, or were to, in the coming season?

“Today’s weather models produce ensemble forecast for storms like Katrina, Harvey and Ian which contain hundreds of counterfactuals, some stronger and costlier than the real events. Applying CFA helps us think critically about risk and better plan for an uncertain future.”

Dr Lin added: “We are thrilled to kick off this collaboration with Aeolus as part of a broader effort to strengthen academia – private industry partnerships. Together, we aim to advance our understanding of tropical cyclone risk in both today’s climate and in future climate scenarios. We believe that close co-operation between academic researchers and private industry leaders is essential to tackling the complex challenges of climate risk.”