Aaron Adderley, president of Bermuda Skyport, recounted a meeting with Air Canada in which he asked them: “Guys, when can we get you back to the island seven days a week? And they looked at us and said, Aaron, it’s just not going to happen. We don’t have the pilots and we don’t have the aircraft. That’s a challenge that Air Canada was facing, but that’s a challenge that many of the large carriers are facing.”

Mr Adderley’s story of Air Canada’s difficulties is a microcosm of broader capacity challenges facing all airlines serving Bermuda, industry panellists said during Monday’s Bermuda Partnership Summit. Globally, airlines are grappling with pilot shortages, delayed aircraft deliveries and supply chain disruptions, which make it difficult to increase service even on desirable routes.

Boeing recently estimated that 660,000 new commercial pilots will be needed worldwide by 2044, and a McKinsey analysis estimated a global shortage of roughly 2,000 aircraft, with around 75 per cent of the shortage relating to narrow-body aircraft.

This is compounded in Bermuda by unique local factors: while seat capacity has returned to 100 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, a 25 per cent reduction in hotel inventory and slower passenger recovery (only 83 per cent of 2019 traffic) dampen demand. Meanwhile, airlines are becoming more selective about where to allocate aircraft and crew, focusing on markets with the strongest returns.

As Mr Adderley noted: “They’re very discerning in terms of determining where they’re going to deploy their assets, where they’re going to fly their planes to.” So destinations like Bermuda, with constrained hotel supply and seasonal fluctuations, face greater hurdles in luring frequent or year-round airlift, he said.

“There is so much stress on the airline,” said Mr Adderley, highlighting the mismatch. “Fewer passengers, fewer hotel beds, but our seat capacity is at 100 per cent of where it was in 2019.”

This dynamic places airlines in a bind. “It’s a challenge to fill the planes that we have, to fill the flights that we have, and because of those external constraints and pressures, it’s proving to be quite challenging,” Mr Adderley explained.

Rob Land, senior vice-president at JetBlue, put it this way: “In our 20 years here, there have been periods where Bermuda has been the single best market in the entire JetBlue system. Conversely, there have been times where it has been the worst, unfortunately, and again, it's not anything the island does or doesn’t do.

He added: “We talked about the hotel capacity, and even when it comes back, it's a finite number. It's not an endlessly growing market, like some other markets. But demand is the big issue.”

William Griffith, acting chairman of the Bermuda Tourism Authority, said in a press briefing that the quango plans to address this.

“It's about accommodation capacity. It's about hotels offering up the type of rates that would encourage airlines. But again, our job is creating more demand,” he said, adding that an increased focus on the British market is on the cards.

Meanwhile, panellists called for a shift towards market stimulation.

Mr Adderley urged: “I would love to see us move from a space where those services are being supported through cannibalisation, and instead moving to a space where those services are being supported through market stimulation.”

He also cited the need for large hotel operators to invest in Bermuda, saying: “They have their own marketing machine that they can tap into and drive more demand to the island.”

Mr Land echoed this: “The number one opportunity for us is to take the trough months and try to increase [demand] and make it a more of a true year-round destination.”

Adam Scott, founder of BermudAir, agreed: “Ultimately, I think we need more competition in every aspect of our business,” he said. “It all helps to evolve and develop the product that we all love and that we’re proud of here in Bermuda.”