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Energy Independence Day

Declining trend: The graph shows monthly OECD energy demand (Source: US Department of Energy)

Americans celebrate their independence from the British every 4th of July. Soon there may need to be a new holiday to celebrate a different kind of independence, energy independence.By many accounts, the US sits on oil and gas reserves that rival Saudi Arabia. In the case of natural gas, the Institute for Energy Research suggested that US recoverable natural gas resources (including conventional, unconventional, lower 48, Alaska and offshore) totals 4.244 quadrillion cubic feet. This is:— Enough natural gas to meet US electricity demand for 575 years at current fuel demand for generation levels.— Enough natural gas to fuel homes heated by natural gas in the US for 857 years.— More natural gas than Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkmenistan combined.Then there is shale oil. The US may have three times the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia in shale oil! In the Federal lands of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming sits some 800 billion recoverable barrels of shale oil. The technology used to extract shale gas — hydraulic fracturing otherwise known as fracking — is on its way to being used to extract shale oil, meaning a potential oil production boom may follow. Let’s also not forget the Gulf of Mexico where production is normalising after the moratorium imposed after the deep-water Horizon blowout, and is set to expand.In a recent research piece, Edward Morse from Citigroup asserts that for the first time since 1949, the US became a net exporter of refined petroleum products, even edging out Russia as the world’s largest refined product exporter. In fact US crude oil and petroleum product imports have been “literally plunging”. Since 2006-07 crude oil imports have fallen by over two million barrels per day from 13.6 to 11.3 million barrels per day respectivelyThe other aspect to consider is that the surge in supply that is developing within the US is also being coupled with much lower demand. Demand has essentially moved into a period of structural decline brought about by a combination of tighter fuel economy standards, increasing natural gas powered substitutes and renewable-sourced electricity mandates. The US. Energy Information Agency (EIA) says US oil imports will drop another 20 percent by 2025. Oil giant BP projects the US will get 94 percent of its energy domestically by 2030, up from 77 percent now, as oil imports fall by half. The EIA says the US will be 42 percent more energy-efficient by 2035. Post 2007, demand has stabilised at a much lower level and has exhibited no growth. See the chart on monthly Department of Energy oil demand.The analysts at Citigroup believe that North America could potentially achieve energy independence by 2020.So what happens if this becomes a reality or even the bulk of this shift occurs? Citigroup suggests the boom in energy investment with the move to more independence will result in the creation of 3.6 million new jobs (enough to cut unemployment by two percent). It could also spur a manufacturing renaissance as cheap feedstock of energy boost margins for domestic chemical businesses. A report from PricewaterhouseCoopers suggests lower feedstock energy costs could help US manufacturing reduce their natural gas expense by as much as $11.6 billion annually through 2025. The same report also indicates manufacturing companies in the US could employ approximately one million more workers during the same time frame due to the benefits of affordable and cheap energy. It would also help the current account deficit. Citi suggests the current account deficit of three percent of GDP could be lowered to 2.4 percent of GDP which would help boost the US dollar by 1.6 percent to 5.4 percent in real exchange terms.Let us consider one other social-economic aspect. Much ink has been spilled predicting the demise of America and the end of an Empire. A lot of it in relation to the US’s dangerous oil addiction and dependence on hostile nations for energy.In fact, a recent poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs indicated that looking forward fifty years from now only one-third of Americans think the United Sates will continue to be the world’s leading power. A group of Chinese polled believes their country will catch up to America in terms of global influence within 10 years. What happens if the US does become truly independent in the sense that it no longer relies on any nation state for basic economic inputs like food, water and energy?The importance of energy independence is often marginalised and overlooked but it has far reaching implications in the realm of global influence. Cheap energy is one of the most important aspects that fuelled America s growth over the last century. Reviving this strength once again could be a major game-changer.Nathan Kowalski is the chief financial officer of Anchor Investment Management Ltd.