This is the latest in a series on the war between Iran and the US

“The problem is not socialism, it’s US imperialism …” — Michael Hudson, economist on the geopolitical blog Dialogue Works

“We have to continue assassinating the Iranian leadership. These cycles of assassinations will help us to weaken the government before an invasion …”— Keith Kellogg, diplomat and former national security adviser to the Vice-President of the United States

“They [the US] are stuck in a quagmire of their own making …” — Ismail Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman

The war was won by Iran months ago. It was an embarrassing strategic defeat for the United States and Israel. There are only two options left for the lead actor here in the form of the US and its fearless leader.

One is to sign a peace treaty or a settlement both based on terms that would be stronger than that which the memorandum of understanding, which has now expired.

Or Donald Trump perhaps should simply pack his bags and simply walk away from the region.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened tomorrow, the damage will not be remediated until December at best.

Is the US still a republic? Much like Rome after the assassination of Caesar it clearly is now an empire and has been one for a very long time. However, today it is an empire clearly in decline. To that fact the US is firmly wedded to its 20th-century style imperialism - the bedrock of its global hegemony. It is to this question that the world and the West in particular turns its attention.

Forty-seven years of US sanctions on Iran have made the country highly resilient to US economic and military pressure.

The US and Israel’s failure to destroy or capture Iran’s arms and the ability of Iran to continue manufacturing them means the strategic advantage that Iran achieved through its victory continues. Of course the US can keep their reality show war going by bombing largely civilian infrastructure and murdering civilians. That is by definition a war crime.

But they cannot expect to win a war by way of modest tactical success. You win a war with strategic success as Iran has done; not strategic defeat which is what the US and Israel have deservedly earned.

There are also positive signs that Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar may be ready to get on the sovereignty bandwagon with Iran. These kingdoms have the fingerprints of the British Empire all over them. They were all a creation of that empire including the settler colony of Israel. They were passed on like some heirloom to the US by the British. For both Anglo-American empires it was about the oil.

The Middle East states have now realised that the security guarantees promised by the US were hollow and not worth the paper they were printed on. But to show you how much of a lock Israel has over the United States these kingdoms, even with the enormous oil reserves they possess, will always take second place to Israel’s interest.

However, Israel’s luck is running out due to this war. The American people have turned decidedly against it by a solid majority including growing numbers of young Republicans. Check the polls for yourself. Secondly, there is redemption for the Saudis and the Gulf Kingdoms. Iran has shown them how sovereignty can be achieved.

The definition of insanity

“Iranians are very smart people — a kind of primitive genius ...” — Donald J. Trump

What is the definition of insanity? I hate using clichés, especially obvious ones but this time it is warranted. Especially as it comes from the inestimable Albert Einstein. To paraphrase Einstein; the US and Israel are doing the same thing over and over by committing war crime after war crime.

Only because in the case of Trump he cannot penetrate the missile cities and manufacturing sites buried deeply under the granite Zagros Mountains and other inaccessible locations, including those at the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel and the US lost the war decisively and cannot reverse that. It was a massive and historic strategic defeat. Not only of the US and Israel but the West in general. Their elites just have not realised it yet or refuse to accept it. Let us not ignore the humanitarian catastrophe Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu will leave behind in their wake of their war against humanity.

Millions around the world particularly those in the Global South are at risk of famine. Those in the global north face high inflation triggered by the high cost of oil and just about everything else derived from it.

Their geopolitical ambitions

“This is why we all need to annihilate Iran … Iran needs to be destroyed.” — Fox News’ Sean Hannity at Lindsey Graham’s funeral

The geopolitical ambitions of Israel and the US in the pursuit of their illegal, unprovoked war of choice against Iran launched in February 28, 2026, represented geopolitical interests at the time that were fully aligned.

Israel saw Iran as a threat to its ambitions in achieving its own territorial expansionist objectives in West Asia, a project known as “Greater Israel”. That includes territorial expansion through much of the Middle East.

It’s hard to believe but it’s all true. It is principally an eschatological derived, nightmarish messianic project we are seeing at work. That is mirrored by the largely Christian fundamentalist end “time movement” found throughout the Anglosphere.

Iran is the only nation or regional power in the region that can and has stood in Israel’s way.

The extreme right wing — pro-Imperialist neocons commonly referred to as the “Deep State” in Washington — is a faction which has dominated American foreign policy and politics mainly in the Republican but also in the Democratic party for decades.

They view the dominance of West Asia as existential to the maintenance of US empire as the British did before it. Its dominance as a strategic choke point is essential to the dollar’s dominance globally because of the significant amount of oil and liquefied natural gas that comes out of West Asia. Twenty per cent of global oil exports come through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US stole a whole country called Venezuela only months ago to stop Venezuela’s government from denominating and accepting as payment the Chinese yuan in return for its oil.

But this strategic loss to Iran months ago now sees a divergence of interests between the US and Israel emerging. Israel as we all know strongly advocated for the war as a war they could not lose. They were wrong.

But the romance fuelled by a multiple of billions over the preceding decades between the two has reached its end. Imagine, we had a welfare state of roughly ten million people paid for by generations of US taxpayers — that at various periods like now had the United States effectively as its proxy in the late 20th and 2st centuries.

This allowed it to play Sparta on the regional and world stages and to bomb well above its weight. Those billions purchased a lot of influence and power in the US Congress and with successive presidents.

To be continued …

• Rolfe Commissiong is the former Progressive Labour Party MP for Pembroke South East (Constituency 21)