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The tribe that lost its head

IT was a bravura street theatre production of Nicholas Monsarrat's tempestuous political parable , the title's droll dual meaning retaining all of its double-barrelled impact in this spirited free adapatation staged by Bermuda's Progressive Labour Party.

As in Monsarrat's decolonisation-era fable about a political movement's fa?ade of nationalistic unity collapsing in the face of vaulting - and conflicting - personal ambitions the PLP decapitated itself, losing its leader in a brief but violent

And in the more general sense the PLP, in the belief that a bout of tactical temporary insanity now would benefit the Government's long-term strategic health, did away with its sense of reason, of equilibrium, of poise. The placid mask of everything's-lovely-in-the garden harmony it donned for the election campaign was tossed away, revealing the ferment of intrigue, plots and untrammelled egotism that lay behind that always unconvincing disguise.

The photo-finish island-wide election result on Thursday rapidly gave way to an even more nail-biting exercise in internal political turmoil.

Given the electorate was almost evenly divided in this General Election, it's not entirely surprising the PLP emerged from the campaign similarly bifurcated. Very nearly half of the voters did not support a second PLP term; just over half the Premier's voters did not want her back in her St. George's constituency; a similar proportion of her own MPs, it turned out, felt similarly about her continuing leadership.

What amounted to a constitutional against Jennifer Smith began on Thursday evening, the hour of PLP victory quickly becoming the hour of decision for her unhappy backbenchers. Clearly the MPs were hoping that voters would have taken the decision to act out of their hands; for weeks there have been reports that PLP dissidents were encouraging strategic voting against the former Premier in Zone One.

When she scraped back into Parliament with a minority of the overall votes cast, her credibility now as insubstantial as thistle down, they acted. It was a move audacious in its concept, bold in its execution and decisive in its impact.

By withdrawing their support, by refusing to serve in Cabinet, they made it impossible for her to form a new Government. The post-election visit to Government House, when the Governor goes through the constitutional motions of inviting the party leader who commands the support of a majority of MPs to serve as Premier, became a logistical tripwire that could have signalled the calling of another General Election. This was political brinkmanship of the highest order; and the former Premier blinked first.

Dame Lois Browne Evans' predictable protestations to the contrary, parties in Westminster-style democracies can and do dump leaders who have fallen out of favour with the electorate.

It's the iron-times-demand-an-iron-broom theory of politics, MPs in straitened circumstances sweeping away the leader who brought them to such an impasse. Few Parliamentarians ever truly possess the eagle-eyed, detailed overviews of their communities they claim give them unique insights into their electorates' needs and desires; virtually all, however, have a vulture's nose for dying credibility within their own parties. So they strike when they sense mortal vulnerability.

Examples are legion. British Conservative Party MPs did what three successive Labour Party leaders were unable to do, mortally wounding Margaret Thatcher's credibility in an internal revolt and forcing her resignation. In Bermuda following the United Bermuda Party's decimating loss of a fifth of its Parliamentary seats at the 1976 General Election, Premier Jack Sharpe faced a long and acrimonious split in his ranks that eventually led to his ouster.

However, disgruntled party rebels rarely move as dramatically - or swiftly - as was the case here this week, turning what should have been a long night of celebration for the PLP into what was effectively Bermuda's Night of the Long Knives. By challenging Jennifer Smith's leadership as soon as a PLP victory was assured, they critically wounded her ability to govern with what amounted to a brutal and decisive stab in the back.

She was an unpopular leader to be sure: aloof, autocratic and as volatile and unpredictable as the path of a tropical storm. Her plunging negatives were probably directly responsible for a commensurate drop in the PLP popular vote at the polls. Although the PLP emerged from the election with a healthy 22-14 majority in terms of Parliamentary seats, it was a very close-run thing indeed in terms of the popular vote. The prospect of Jennifer Smith exploiting this highly conditional affirmation by the electorate to further entrench herself at the expense of the other elected MPs was unacceptable to her insurgents.

Changes introduced to both the Bermuda and PLP constitutions by the former Premier were, in part, designed to codify her personal omnipotence and sense of irreplaceability, to further diminish the role of elected MPs in setting policy and direction for both the Government and the party. Once sworn in for a second term and knowing full well that her weakened position would likely invite internal challenges, she would surely have used these new constitutionally enshrined powers to further consolidate her position as the absolute master of the Bermuda state rather than as its first servant. The rebels had one opportunity to mount a successful , the unsettled period between the end of the election campaign and the formation of a new Government. They seized it.

Similarly, the rebels were able to read portents of impending doom into the election night numbers that the Premier's oracle was seemingly unable to prophesise. These also added steel to their resolve. A shift of fewer than 50 votes in a handful of key constituencies would have either handed the Government back to the UBP by a paper-slim margin or, at best, resulted in a hung Parliament.

either scenario, another General Election would have followed in short order. The prospects of Jennifer Smith being able to sufficiently rehabilitate her image and regalvanise the party in those circumstances must have appeared as remote as the farthest star to her insurgent MPs. Her credibility punctured, her MPs' tacit truce with the Premier already falling apart, a quick election rematch with the UBP would likely have resulted in a decisive Opposition victory; as things stood on election night the UBP had already come perilously close to inflicting a Technical Knock Out against the Government.

So it was decided that if the deed were done, then 'twere well it was done quickly.

The blow was struck. The Premier had no option but to resign.

However, while Jennifer Smith may be gone from the Cabinet Office, the enhanced executive powers she introduced to the Premier's position remain in place. With the legislative and bureaucratic branches of Government now more fully subordinated than ever to the Premier's, her successors will enjoy use of the quasi-authoritarian powers she attempted to accrue to herself.

Clearly the electorate was encouraged to vote for the PLP under false pretences, to vote for a viper's nest of duelling conspiracies and conflicting agendas that was masquerading as a political party.

In his frank address to PLP delegates on Sunday Dr. Ewart Brown conceded the governing party sailed through the election campaign under false colours because, as he said, any hint of the divisions within the Parliamentary group would have been paralleled by a divided vote at the polling stations.

Political expediency was placed ahead of principles; the insurgents entered the campaign in an alliance of convenience with Jennifer Smith, an alliance that became inconvenient directly the Premier was returned in her St. George's constituency with a minority of the overall votes cast.

Now the time for deception was over, said Dr. Brown.

And his was an exceptionally candid address, perhaps too honest for those Bermudians who support a party where ideological and personal differences are supposed to remain very much subordinate to the umbrella-concept of racial nationalism.

Dr. Brown has a natural sangfroid that an anti-tank missile could not dent. His enemies, as resentful of his acumen and polish as they are disturbed by his ambition and hubris, are prone to describe Dr. Brown's panache as "arrogance"; indeed, his disparaging sometime nickname "Papa Doc" was bestowed upon him by a PLP rival rather than the Opposition.

Yet in this instance it would be very difficult to counter either the logic or honesty of his deft analysis with accusations of self-aggrandisement; he delivered what a recovering alcoholic would call a "fearless moral self-inventory" of his own agenda, a telling diagnosis of the party's many ills under Jennifer Smith.

He threw his name into contention to succeed the former Premier.

Yet he failed to be selected.

And the arithmetic is telling.

The insurgents had to settle on a compromise candidate for Premier, Alex Scott, because neither of their choices, Dr. Brown or Terry Lister, was likely to draw enough support from the Jennifer Smith camp to put them over the top. Unless some truly dramatic deals are struck in coming months, unless some lifelong political convictions and hostilities are set aside, it is unlikely that the rump of Smith loyalists will ever embrace Dr. Brown or, indeed, anyone from the rebel group, as Premier.

And with the former Premier returning to the House as a backbencher, she will be a permanent reminder to her remaining supporters that the only PLP leader to have ever won a General Election was brought down by her own MPs rather than the UBP. As long as she remains in the House, she will brood and plot and plan ways of exacting revenge on her enemies, of turning the bloody instruments that cost her the Cabinet Office against their inventors.

Jennifer Smith clearly has neither the strength nor the support to stage a political comeback; but she is certainly in a position to obstruct the progress of those who turned on her, to lay low those who humiliated her.

Brown is already being characterised by Smith loyalists as a refugee from the seventh and inner-most circle of hell, that hottest and most sulphur-scented cell reserved for the likes of Brutus and Judas Iscariot. Unless he proves himself as adept at horse-trading as he is at speech-making, Dr. Brown will likely suffer the fate of Britain's Michael Heseltine, who toppled Thatcher but whose perceived treachery and oleaginous nature made it impossible to elevate himself to the leadership.

So Alex Scott should not necessarily be viewed as a caretaker Premier, a stopgap leader between Jennifer Smith and the supposedly irresistible Dr. Brown.

As long as he retains the solid backing of the Smith camp, his position will be unchallangeable barring another exercise in internal blood-letting - which the insurgents, divided as they are between Dr. Brown and Mr. Lister, will be anxious to avoid. True, he has health problems but power is the opiate of the ambitious - and no one could ever accuse Mr. Scott of lacking in ambition.

Returned to office with just under two-thirds of the Parliamentary seats but the barest of majorities in terms of the popular vote (so much for all votes being of equal value in the redistricted Bermuda), elected on a manifesto nobody read because the ink was still wet on its pages on polling day, now being led by a Premier who did not lead the PLP re-election campaign, this has been as unhinged a week as Bermudian politics has ever known.

There's likely to be more spells of political lunacy ahead. For the decision to embrace Alex Scott on Sunday evening marked the beginning of a ceasefire in the PLP ranks, not the onset of a permanent peace. It's surely only a matter of time before the PLP - and, by extension, the Government - loses its head again.