THE people who believe they can most influence the outcome of the crucial Florida Presidential vote are angered and astonished by the Bermuda Government's new cultural and business links with Fidel Castro's Cuba, and expect that their voting clout may elect Bermuda's political nemesis Senator John Kerry.

In an interview with the , Joe Garcia, executive director of the powerful Cuban-American National Foundation (CANF) in Miami, said he could not comprehend why Bermuda would extend the hand of friendship to Cuba, particularly in a year when both Presidential candidates can be expected to be particularly vociferous in their condemnation of Castro's regime.

"I just don't understand it. It is an amazing phenomenon. That Bermuda, a country that is known for its freedom, its tranquillity, that is known for its international business as well as its lifestyle, where multinational companies go because of its assertion of the rule of law, that Bermuda would be dealing with a 'rogue state' is incredible."

Mr. Garcia, 40 years old and Miami-born, pointed out that among the many dissidents being held in jail by Castro's regime is Cuba's poet laureate and 20 journalists whose sole "crime" was a demand for journalistic independence.

"It just goes against the very traditions that Bermuda has been known for: a place that promotes stability, an island with perhaps the best lifestyle in the world. There are lot of networks of Cubans where we send information to each other, and this Bermuda story is greatly disheartening.

"It makes no sense. Cuba is the antithesis of everything Bermuda should stand for. If you were asked to pick the ideal island paradise, you would probably say Bermuda. If you were asked to find hell in the Caribbean, you would pick Cuba."

Mr. Garcia insisted that he was not against "purposeful travel" to Cuba, and wished that Bermuda would throw its weight behind the plight of the Cuban dissidents. He believes that it is impossible to take a middle course in matters of freedom.

"Unfortunately, in Cuba, there's no distinction. I am someone who has been in favour of more contacts with the people of Cuba, but the truth is, in Cuba, you can't sing unless you sing for Castro, you can't dance, unless you dance for Castro. It's a deal with the Devil.

"So, for Cuban-Americans, we read about Bermuda and Cuba, and the question is, 'Why?' What is the benefit? It's sad, and I am shocked by it. The bottom line question for a country whose essence is the rule of law and stability is, 'Why on God's green earth would you want to be associated with this thug'?"

Mr. Garcia, referring to the prospective new flight from Miami, saw the possibility of a thriving travel connection between Florida and Bermuda.

"The Bermuda Government would find itself very well-received if it went in the other direction (over Cuba). I understand trying to get closer to south Florida. A lot of people from south Florida travel to Bermuda or would like to. It would be a great jumping-off point to Bermuda.

"If you turn that around, there are no tourists from Cuba. Why would Bermuda establish relations with a country whose tourism is based on slave labour? Bermuda is a five-star vacation resort, a first-class destination, whereas Cuba is a package travel destination. Why on God's green earth would you try to link these two?"

Mr. Garcia referred to a recent piece in our sister publication, Matthew Taylor'sstory titled "Cuba-Bermuda ties risking US friendship", which he had received from four different sources in the Cuban community, and which was being widely disseminated throughout the Cuban community in the United States.

"Just yesterday, I sent it to 170 of the most influential business and political leaders in south Florida, members of the Cuban-American National Foundation. There's no action plan associated with it, it's just a matter of letting people know what's going on. For us, it's surprising.

"We could understand if you lived in Castro's orbit, if you were a hundred miles away, and always had refugees landing there. But you're a thousand miles away, and don't have to deal with the repercussions of Castro's mismanagement. You're a great business centre. If you look at the 80 countries ranked by Moody's, Cuba is third from the bottom."

Joe Garcia is well aware of the power of the Cuban-American community in Florida, and the likelihood that it will be instrumental in deciding whether Senator John Kerry or President Bush is successful in the November 2004 election. The influence of his CANF in galvanising ? and influencing ? Florida's Cuban-American vote in US Presidential elections was highlighted in the most recent

"Florida is going to be key in the presidential election. It's just the way it breaks down, if you count the electoral (college) votes around the country. If one per cent of the Cuban-American vote was different last time, or if one per cent had just not voted, Al Gore would be sitting in the White House."

Although Vice President Gore won only 17 per cent of the Cuban-American vote in Florida in the 2000 presidential election, Senator John Kerry is currently polling 36 per cent and many observers, including Joe Garcia, appear optimistic about his prospects of carrying Florida.

"Senator Kerry is obviously going to try to 'get in tune' with the Cuban community. He has very good surrogates working on his behalf. Even if Kerry doesn't get 36 per cent, even if he gets only 25 per cent (of the Cuban-American vote), it is still bad news for the Republicans."

Mr. Garcia explained that this year there will be no "Elian" factor, alluding to the controversial and politically polarising decision taken by the Clinton administration to return the then-ten-year old Elian Gonzalez to the custody of his father in Cuba, after his mother died in an attempt to reach the US. The decision was extremely unpopular in the Cuban-American community.

"(Cuban-Americans) wanted to send a message.They punished Al Gore for Clinton's sins. The handling of the Elian decision gave the Republicans a galvanising issue and overwhelming numbers from the Cuban community.

"The reason the Cuban-Americans are such an important voting factor is because they are 'swing' voters. They voted almost 60 per cent for (Democratic Senator) Bob Graham. Alex Pinelas, Mayor of Dade County, is a Democrat, and he is running for US Senate."

The Cuban-American National Foundation, usually seen as a Republican-leaning group, does not think that the Bush Administration has shown a sufficiently forceful attitude towards Cuba.

Mr. Garcia explained: "He created tremendous expectations, and the problem we have can be summed up as 'Show me the meat'. He has been in for three years. Castro has most of the top dissidents sitting in jails right now, so there's a lot of frustration and anger.

"At the same time, they are not great fans of Kerry, who has been weak on Cuba. It's a fascinating debate, and what you are going to see in this election, unlike last time when the Democrats gave up South Florida, this time they will fight for every inch of it.

"If Kerry gets 25 or 30 per cent of the Cuban community vote, it will be very hard for the President to hold Florida. There are a lot of factors in this election. There are two Cuban-Americans running for US Senate, former Cabinet Secretary Mel Martinez, a Republican, and (the more popular and charismatic) Alex Pinelas.

"So there are a lot of reasons for Cuban-Americans to turn out strongly if those are the finalists in the process. If Alex Pinelas is the Democratic nominee for Senate, I think it's almost impossible for Bush to hold the state, because Cuban-Americans will go to the polls to vote for a strong Cuban-American."

Mr. Garcia takes the view that his community has been waiting 45 years for a democracy in Cuba. They have given their lives for that dream of democracy, and the Cuban question is still an issue of great importance to them.

"For us, the 'Cold War' is not yet over," he told the .

On Wednesday, a news agency report noted that "the Bush administration identified a Canadian travel company that it says is linked to Cuba and thus is forbidden from doing business in the United States.

The Treasury Department's action against Hola Sun Holidays Limited of Ontario, Canada, marks the latest development from President George W. Bush's call for more aggressive enforcement of provisions that prohibit most travel to Cuba. The department alleged that the travel agency is "controlled by Fidel Castro and his regime".

Those in Bermuda who have taken a relaxed view of Bermuda's new Cuban links may be discomfited by that report, but they may also reasonably conclude that the Florida election season has begun in earnest.