FAR be it for me to try to guess what form the Government's much heralded debate on the question of Independence will finally take. But I would have thought that Government would not have wanted discussions on Independence to clash with its equally vaunted Social Agenda, recently unveiled amid much fanfare in the Throne Speech.

Unless there is going to be an attempt to marry these two important issues, I would think there is a real danger of one overshadowing the other.

With respect to the question of Independence, I would think that a debate could well fall victim to the perennial "We-have-too-much-on-our plate" argument that is made by those who do not support sovereign Independence for Bermuda, the critics pointing to the Social Agenda as proof that Government is indeed overextending itself.

It's a given that those of us who do support Independence for Bermuda are going to have a tough time of it in attempting to convince a majority of Bermudians to back the idea, tougher even than if we had to mount an armed struggle to win nationhood for Bermuda.

The reasons for this widespread reluctance to take Bermuda to Independence are, of course, rooted in this country's history, psychology and culture.

This has not always been indicated by the various polls that have been taken to gauge the opinions of Bermudians on the subject. Usually those only offer "yes" or "no" answers when respondents are asked whether or not they support Bermudian Independence. The polls do not record the reasoning behind the positions they take.

These underlying factors need to be considered and addressed by proponents of sovereignty in dealing with the issue of Independence.

For example, in a series of articles written by former Member of Parliament Bill Cox, he quite forcefully argued that Bermuda is headed down the same erratic constitutional path as the Caribbean nation of Grenada, the scene of two coups which overthrew two successive governments. The particularly violent overthrow of the Grenadian leader Maurice Bishop resulted in his assassination and an American invasion of that country in 1984.

Mr. Cox is convinced that parallels now exist between Grenada and Bermuda as a result of the Progressive Labour Party's approach to both constitutional reform and the subject of Independence. But he has yet to provide any historical background rooted in Bermuda's modern political devevelopment that would convince his conclusions are valid.

I would think that for a successful coup to take place you would need the support of a large and well organised armed militia or even a full-time army with a professional officer corps that had become politicised by a leader or a grouping within one or other of the political parties.

was the case in Grenada prior to the 1984 overthrow of Bishop. But what I think Mr. Cox was really trying to say was that if Bermuda went Independent, then there would be far less of a chance for British intervention in Bermudian affairs. I have lived in Bermuda all of my life: I have learned how to read between the lines.

But what are the merits of the British being able to intervene directly in Bermudian affairs? There is a mindset that exists here, one which subscribes to the notion that intervention by Westminster should always be a factor in the Bermudian political affairs.

I am sure that during the debate which led up to the creation of single-seat constituencies, this was the one hope of those reactionaries who opposed the changing of Bermuda's Constitution to reflect the further democratisation of Bermuda's political system ? namely, that the British would intervene to stop the process which led to one man, one vote, each vote of equal value.

This closed mindset has never accepted the proposition it is better that Bermuda develop the ability to solve its own problems without third-party intervention, just like every other mature country has learned to do.

To discuss another subject that will doubtless feature prominently in the pending Independence debate, I imagine the international business sector was taken aback by some of the critical reactions to its negative opinions concerning the prospect of Bermudian Independence.

The Association of Bermuda International Companies (ABIC), in its letter on the subject to Premier Alex Scott, even seemed to suggest that given how important foreign investors are to the Bermudian economy they should have some type of backroom veto over any moves towards Independence.

thing the PLP Government has made clear over the last six years is that it is prepared to take the opinions of international business into consideration when crafting its policies. I am sure the PLP is ready to allow great latitude to the off-shore financial services industry during the coming debate on the question of sovereignty.

But I and many other Independence proponents were nonplussed by the fact these foreign investors in Bermuda have taken such a highly public stance in the opening phases of this nascent debate on Bermudian Independence.

One comment made by ABIC particularly caught my attention. And that was the future status of Bermudian/American relations in regard to the customs pre-clearance privileges the Americans have allowed us.

I don't know why this particular area of US/Bermuda relations would be endangered if we were to go Independent. I think the whole question of pre-customs clearance is a smokescreen designed to distract attention from the benefits of Independence.

I think it is intended to undermine the position of pro-Independence advocates by implying that US/Bermuda ties would come under threat. Certainly, if this were in fact true, such arguments would be very potent and influence Bermudians to oppose Independence.

my own case there is probably not another Bermudian with strong American family ties who would not like to see this relationship between Bermuda and America continue as is than I.

But if the time should come when America does require Bermudians to have visas before entering America, then I would accept that position without protest in the sure knowledge that it is every country's right to regulate its borders as it sees fit.

I am unsure of how Bermuda originally gained its US pre-customs clearance but I suspect that this privilege had little to do with our current colonial status and probably stemmed from our relationship with the Americans during the Cold War and the era when they operated military bases here.

Finally, let me comment on the single most important factor which will eventually allow Bermudians to support the idea of Bermudian Independence. And that is the fact that sovereignty will demonstrate that we have confidence in ourselves as a people to manage our own affairs ? or at least the confidence enough to take the final constitutional step that will make us Independent.

We must give this gift of Bermudian confidence and awareness of self to our children. They will benefit the most from it. After all, although we may not want to accept the fact, we are on the way out while our children are coming.

I would rather leave them a legacy of confidence in themselves as Bermudians than a legacy of colonial dependency.