THE narrow failure of the United Bermuda Party to win the July 24 election can be summed up in one sentence - it failed to outrun the legacy of its 30-year control of Government.

Its political strategists must have known that once the dust cleared after the historic 1998 election which saw the Progressive Labour Party form the Government for the first time, that the UBP would have to put as much distance between itself and its uninterrupted 30-year grip on power as possible. There would have to be more than cosmetic changes. That is not to say that everything which occured on the 1968-98 UBP watch was necessarily bad; it wasn't. But the reality is that the PLP won the 1998 election as a result of a black political revolt - meaning the UBP would have to woo back a not inconsiderable number of those black, middle-class votes if it was to win the 2003 election.

Certainly the fledgling PLP Government wasted little time in handing the UBP Opposition ammunition to use against the new administration, so much so it must have seemed to be a political godsend.

Accusations of widespread corruption in the handling of Bermuda Housing Corporation affairs and delays and accusations concerning the building of the new Berkeley Institute provided the Opposition and its supporters much to get excited over. But these scandals had no bearing on many of those who voted the PLP into Government in 1998. They were determined to give this Government every chance, come what may.

However, the Premier's increasingly aloof and eccentric leadership probably did cause some of the PLP vote to bleed away. Leadership is just not about hard work; it's about instinct, timing, having your finger on the pulse of the people. Even the "Hey Bye" politics popularised by Sir John Swan in the end is not good enough if that is all there is: friendliness and openness has to be coupled to the popular mood. Sir John clearly misread the public mood when it came to the failed Independence initiative. Jennifer Smith, however, misread the public mood almost from the day she was installed: misread it, or, more likely, simply ignored it.

This was reflected in her policy of keeping the press at arms length, a very bad move on the part of the Premier. You may get bad press, but as leader of the country the media cannot ignore you. The PLP Government failed to live up to its promise to create a more open Government when it came to the dissemination of information largely as a result of its Premier's phobia about the press, her fear of failure and criticism.

For a time the Premier's modus operandi seemed to be adopted by her entire Cabinet until some Ministers grasped the political reality that it's better to put their policies on the table and defend them from there. Those who did saw their political stock rise, in some cases dramatically.

The UBP, of course, had an extended field day given the Premier's policy of secrecy. Where was the open government she had promised? Where was the sunshine of public scrutiny? But, as I have already mentioned, the UBP did not fully grasp the underground dynamics that drive Bermuda, especially in the areas of race and politics.

The United Bermuda Party may have looked at the PLP's perceived missteps as ideal opportunities to score political points. But their enthusiasm in doing so may have delayed the creation of a genuinely new UBP and the adoption of a more PLP-oriented agenda, a broadly appealing manifesto.

One thing the UBP forgot is the great patience that Bermudians have. After all, the United Bermuda Party was in control of government for some 30 years but when Bermudian sympathies shifted to the PLP in 1998, Bermudians wanted to give the new administration a chance - despite the crisis of expectations experienced by some of its more hardcore supporters. The majority of Bermudians were prepared to give the PLP a chance and, as things turned out, even a second chance to deal with the legacy of 30 years of United Bermuda Party rule.

The most important thing the PLP had to prove during its first term in office was that it could run and manage Bermuda's economy. They were very cautious in what they did in this area because for years the UBP had claimed the PLP would destroy Bermuda's wealth. Indeed, many in the business community have been pleasantly surprised by the PLP Government's fiscal conservatism.

BUT on the flip side, of course, among some PLP supporters there developed a growing sense of disappointment, a feeling that the PLP never quite came to grips with. Judging by recent shocked and sympathetic statements from the international business community on Jennifer Smith's ouster, it seems the former Premier may have been more comfortable talking to them then to her own people.

The UBP adroitly exploited this crisis of expectations as any good Opposition should have done, taking the side of groups that had disputes with the Government, including many workers, teachers, even blue collar labourers who marched up to the House of Assembly to heckle the Premier of Bermuda's first labour Government. In calling itself the "New" UBP, the former friend of the Front Street establishment began to sound more and more like the old PLP Opposition: there was even something quasi-socialistic about its promises to provide housing at very low cost.

But many people still saw the old UBP lurking behind the facade of this so-called "New" UBP. And this led to what was probably the biggest election miscalculation on the UBP's part, its handling of the racial factor in Bermudian politics.

The United Bermuda Party knows that it will have to win a significant proportion of the the black community's votes if it is to have any chance of winning the Government benches agains.

So it presents its black candidates and claims that it is diverse. The United Bermuda Party has never stopped to ask itself what kind of links black UBP candidates have with the broader black community other than the colour of their skin? I have never seen a black UBP candidate have the nerve to tell their white colleagues that they are not prepared to forget the past with its largely black struggle to bring about racial justice and real democracy in this country, except one, Grace Pitcher Bell, who always called herself a worker and joined in the labour marches.

I always respected her for that, even though she was a member of the United Bermuda Party. The past cannot be forgotten for to do so would dishonour those who suffered, who sacrificed, who created the conditions for bringing about the Bermuda we live in today.

I, for one, can never understand why a white worker struggling to make ends meet just like me would vote for a conservative political party, whose history has seen it consistently ignoring the working class. Isn't it in our interests to put a government in charge that at least will proclaim that it's there in our interests. Is this madness on the part of the white worker, something worse than the alleged emotional support of blacks for the PLP?

I understand the mindset, however. I have studied it for years. Just take the statement of defeated UBP candidate Mark Pettingill. "They the (PLP) are divisive and racist. We will not go forward as a country with that type of leadership. I dream of better things for my children and my colleagues' children."

Does that mean Dale Butler, who beat Mark Pettingill and who is now a Minister in the PLP Government, is racist? What makes your dream more legitimate than mine? And why should I trust you with the government? You have never supported anything progressive in this country right up to the question of one man, one vote.

As always, I look around for a symbol that will sum up the racial realities of this country. You know why white people like Johnny Barnes, waving at them in the morning? Because Johnny Barnes is a benign black man, he represents no threat. But I, as a black man, will come up to you and say something stinks in this country and I am going to change it. Will I get a statue? How about a Dr. Gordon or an Ottiwell Simmons?

Until the white community comes to terms with that truth, than Mark Pettingill is right, we will never go forward as a country, together and the UBP will find it hard to make political inroads in the black community.