Sir John: The once and future Premier?
PERHAPS two of the strongest influences - and some might call them aphrodisiacs - known to man are the pursuit of wealth and the attainment of political power.
In looking at these two aspects of life, I am not sure - despite the great store that is placed on wealth - whether the control of political power does not hold a greater allure for some of us.
Certainly from my perspective, the former would seem to be the case as I have seen countless examples of political leaders who persist in remaining in the saddle despite age, lack of good health or clear indication that their political activity would serve no useful purpose for themselves or their country.
The undeniable appeal that politics exerts over some men and women should be borne in mind as the drama over Sir John Swan's possible return to active political duty continues to unfold. It's unlikely to be the only factor at work but one cannot deny that it is likely part of the equation.
At other times and in other places countries facing crises have called on leaders who are perceived to have special qualities, who are seen as being above the day-to-day political fray, to step into the breaches in public life and lead their nations back to stability. This is certainly the impression that those forefront of the various Draft Swan campaigns would like to get across.
And there are times when such recalls have been very necessary; there are many historical examples of this.
One which I am very familiar with involves the French wartime leader and great president Charles de Gaulle.
As a general he led the Free French forces against the Nazi occupation of his country during World War Two. However, after being catapulted to high political office in the aftermath of the war, he resigned the premiership and was absent from the French political stage for some years.
But he was later recalled by the French public to lead the country during a time of crisis when it was thought no one else had the necessary status to do so.
During the 1950s parts of the French army had mutinied in Algeria during that country's struggle for Independence. One million French settlers in the North African territory refused to countenance the idea of Independence from France. The influence they had over the army led to the mutinies and the fanatical resistance put up by the notorious settler group OAS (Organisation de l'Armee Secrete) led to terrorist acts against the Arab population in Algeria and threatened at one point to spark a civil war in France itself.
De Gaulle, the greatest French wartime leader and hero, was the only one with the necessary status to bring an end to this crisis.
Brought back to power, he recognised Algerian Independence and brought the bitter and bloody liberation war to an end. He then went on to forge a new relationship with other former French colonies, especially those in Africa.
His influence over French political affairs was such that he spawned a political movement in France which created a political party named after him, the centre-right Gaullist party, which held influence over French politics for a number of years, even after de Gaulle himself finally left the French political stage.
In the current Bermudian scenario, there have been calls by some United Bermuda Party supporters - principally Mr. Toppy Cowen - for the return of Sir John (pictured left) to the leadership position of his party because it is believed the long-time former Premier could lead the UBP back to power.
It is true that Sir John Swan's political career was cut short when he embarked on his Independence initiative. The hard-core opposition to that move came from within his own party, notwithstanding the Progressive Labour Party's call for its voters to boycott the Independence referendum.
BUT the real question to ask is whether Bermuda is currently undergoing a crisis of leadership that only an individual with the undeniable appeal and status of Sir John can solve?
It is true that we have problems in this country. But the greatest problem faced by the current PLP Government, in my opinion, is a crisis of expectations on the part of many of its own supporters. This in turn has led to a focus on the PLP's hierarchy, in particular the leadership of Premier Jennifer Smith which has been questioned and challenged in recent months by her own backbenchers among others.
And what is the nature of this crisis of expectations? Well, many supporters expected a PLP Government to be much more radical than it has been in putting in introducing the type of widespread change that its voters want.
This was the central reason why the PLP won the last election.
Bermudians wanted sweeping change rather than the incremental approach always favoured under the former UBP Government. This is going to represent a problem for the UBP if it hopes to win the Government again and the has nothing to do with race. If it was strictly a question of race then why didn't the PLP win control of the Government back in 1968 when the country held its first free vote under Universal Adult Suffrage?
FROM that time up until the 1998 elections the UBP not only had several white leaders of the Government but white politicians gained a fair percentage of the black vote which allowed them to stay in power. However, the UBP was never able to gain a majority of the black vote even when Sir John was leader.
When he won a record 31 Parliamentary seats, this was as a result of a split in the black community over the PLP dissident revolt. And black voters showed their disapproval of the PLP's civil war by staying away from the polls in that snap 1985 election, not by voting in increased numbers for the UBP.
So this is a far cry from what Mr. Cowen is hoping Sir John will be able to achieve now in terms of wooing the black vote. And what could Sir John promise in this changed political situation where, even beyond race, people clearly expect more from their Government than they did in the past?
A UBP Government would still be faced with the same crisis of expectations now faced by the PLP. I doubt Sir John would have any more success convincing his conservative political support base to embark on a programme of radical change to attract more of the black vote than he was able to sell them on Independence.
No matter how much UBP supporters may dislike the current PLP Government, to my mind there would have to be much more of a feeling of crisis in this country for the majority of people to believe the situation has deteriorated to the point where only former Premier Swan leading the UBP can solve it.
