Did Government overreact over Hurricane Juan?

The answer is yes and no, depending on whether you are looking at what actually happened and what could have happened. Generally speaking, the science of storm prediction has improved enormously in the last 15 years or so.

Nonetheless, it remains an inexact science which relies on probabilities, not certainties. Bermuda has been extremely lucky in the past with storms that have been headed for the Island and have veered away, sometimes at literally the last minute.

There is as great a risk that a storm will veer towards the Island in the same way. So when the tropical depression that developed into Hurricane Juan within some 36 hours first formed, any sensible Government would err on the side of the caution, or to put it another way, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

It is, however, a false premise to say 'look at what Fabian did, the same thing is going to happen again', except in one respect. No two storms are alike and you cannot "prepare to fight the last war" when the next hurricane looms.

But Fabian did badly damage the Causeway and Government was right to warn in advance that it would be closed as Juan loomed, especially as weather forecasters were predicting tropical storm force winds on the Island. It would have been reckless and negligent not to put safety on the Causeway first.

Once the decision to close the Causeway was made on Thursday, others naturally flowed from it. There would be no way for passengers to either get out of the Airport or get to it to leave, so flights would have to be cancelled. Equally, East End schools would have to be closed.

On the day itself, it became clear that planes could have landed and taken off from the Airport with ease and there was probably no need to close the Causeway at any time. But the Government should not be faulted for this.

It can be faulted for not keeping people up to date on the status of the Causeway, but that's about it. For everything else, it took the best decisions it could with the information it had, and that is about the best any of us can do.

No one would want to be the person who predicted that the Island would not be hit, based on gut instinct or shark oil, only to be proven wrong, especially with a storm that formed, moved and grew with the speed of Juan.

Indeed, at virtually this time of year 16 years ago, that is exactly what Hurricane Emily did, and a great many people were caught by surprise. And that is a lesson worth remembering.