Political pundits like to take apart by-election results and read them like tea leaves, both to assess the performance of their respective parties and to see if there are any indicators for an upcoming General Election.

Often the final result has little bearing on future results, and invariably there will be a good deal of spinning of the election result from party officials of both sides, with each keen to declare victory. Still, there is good and bad news for both political parties in the wake of the Pembroke East Central by-election.

The Progressive Labour Party can take satisfaction from having won with a substantial majority of some 170 votes and a 56.9 percent share of the vote. That was a substantial enough result to secure Premier Jennifer Smith's position as PLP leader up to the General Election. Had the vote been closer, the selection of political newcomer Ashfield DeVent and the handing of the campaign would have been second-guessed. As it is, she can consider herself safe.

It is notoriously difficult to compare performances in general elections, when two candidates run for each party, with by-elections, when only one is. And the traditionally lower turnout for by-elections, especially in safe seats, makes comparisons even more difficult.

Nonetheless, PLP officials cannot be happy to have seen the party's share of the vote decline from around 68 percent in 1998 to 57 percent in this poll. While no one would expect a by-election to recycle the kind of General Election euphoria and turnout that characterised the 1998 election, this remains a worrying dip that would have been significant in a more marginal seat.

Even for a by-election, overall turnout was exceptionally low at 44 percent and that suggests that neither party's get-out-the-vote machinery is as well oiled as they would like or as it should be. The PLP saw its overall vote drop by 49 percent from 880-plus votes in 1998 to 453 in the by-election. In the meantime, overall turnout dropped by 40 percentage points so the overall rate of decline for the PLP should be worrying.

For the United Bermuda Party, the news is equally mixed. The good news is that the Rev. Leonard Santucci improved on his party's performance in the 1998 General Election as his share of the vote rose from about 30 percent to 36.1 percent. And the drop in total voters was also less severe than the PLP's, falling about 29 percent from about 400 voters to 287.

It is intriguing to consider that if the UBP has mobilised what one would assume was its base support of about 400 voters from the last General Election it still would have lost this by-election but it would have made it tantalisingly close. As it was, the UBP was only a little more successful in mobilising its base vote than the PLP, again demonstrating that both parties have much more work to do in identifying their likely supporters and getting them to the polls.

More broadly, it shows that if swing voters who went PLP in the last election are disenchanted with the Government now, the UBP has not succeeded in converting them. Nor did it get the kind of "protest vote" it might have expected in an election that would have no bearing on which party would make up the Government. That is borne out by recent polling that indicates that neither party can be sure of more than 30 percent of the vote on a national basis, with about 40 percent of voters still undecided.

Tuesday's election result suggests that the next General Election remains either party's to win or lose.