As children, most of us were reminded by our parents not to put the cart before the horse. Said another way, don?t act precipitously. Make sure any bright, new sure-fire, can?t-miss idea fits coherently into a well-thought out thoroughly tested general plan for overall success.

As the reality of the appalling lack of affordable housing in Bermuda starts to grip the general consciousness, it must be said few indications exist of a comprehensive general multi-faceted development plan currently in place on the Island into which affordable housing projects, innovative or not, easily can fit. A high percentage of failures are sure to occur under such circumstances.

No responsible, caring person can ignore the current lack of affordable housing in Bermuda. Everyone must applaud recent attempts by Government, quangos, churches, private developers and the like to address the problem. At the recent forum on this topic at the Bermuda Industrial Union, one audience member stated that she was a single mother with one child, earning $80,000 a year and that she has been told she does not even remotely qualify for a bank loan for a market level price house. Everyone attending must have thought, if she can?t qualify what about the thousands of people not as well situated financially as she is? How can they ever afford to buy a market level home? Even worse, how many of those qualifying for heavily subsidised affordable housing status can afford even the minimal down payments to be required to take part in these new programmes?

Unfortunately the problems with provision of affordable housing extend far beyond the admittedly formidable financial constraints faced by many working Bermudians. There is the problem of crime, especially drug trafficking, that could well increase in the setting of mixed income affordable housing. Would one be defusing the present problem, making it less prevalent, or merely planting new fields in which for it to prosper? Similarly, especially if the heavily subsidised housing is similar or the same as the market rate housing, would those paying full freight be satisfied in partially subsidising their neighbours?

In like manner, with the rocketing cost of building materials and the current unending demand for commercial construction are any of these glibly quoted affordable housing figures grounded in reality? Not surprisingly, during the BIU presentations, none of the panellists even ventured to attempt a definition of ?affordable housing?. It is very hard to solve any problem if one cannot begin by defining its parameters in all of its complexity.

Not all is gloom and doom in the affordable housing field, fortunately. In the United States numerous such projects have succeeded, especially, in recent years, driven by sophisticated not-for-profit entities and for profit developers specialising in utilising governmental incentives in this domain. However, in a country approaching 300 million inhabitants, many successes are inevitable. In like manner, so are many failures. One should be very slow to claim that an idea which succeeded in the United States must perforce succeed in Bermuda, a self-contained limited sized island hard-pressed to house adequately its 60,000 or so inhabitants plus a substantial ever-changing guest worker population.

One generalisation about affordable housing success in the United States, when it has occurred, is that there almost always has been concurrent, wider multi-dimensional comprehensive planning of a type that affordable housing stock additions can complement and improve, not place added burdens. Otherwise, like a clogged toilet, the overflow will spill outward, infecting all in its path. So far Bermuda has not reached this stage of comprehensive general planning able to support large scale additions to the overall affordable housing stock.

In 1995, The United States Government abandoned its commitment to the on-site defence of Bermuda. Ten percent of the land mass of the Island was placed in play, 46 years ahead of schedule. We all are overly familiar with the sad tale of what has happened in the succeeding decade.

A comprehensive plan for extensive development of affordable housing should have been an immediate foundation stone of planning at both major sites. Only haphazardly at Southside and not at all at Morgan?s Point has such planning taken place in the interim.

The one major improvement in both situations is that the United States ceded all residual property claims to these lands in its recent agreement with Bermuda on the subject, brokered by the British Government.

In my opinion, the Jennifer Smith Government has not received sufficient credit for erasing what arguably could have been a title defect attached to this land until 2041. The amount of compensation received aside, this may have been the most outstanding accomplishment of her time in office.

It may be that the baselands planning failures are being repeated before our very eyes on the Island?s shorelines. One must wonder whether the big picture is being considered in many of the proposed new construction projects.

Whether it is affordable housing at Saint David?s, new construction at Stonington-Coco Reef, proposed reconstruction at Anchorage Road in St. George, or the gutting of the city views along Harbour Road for the forthcoming Newstead-Belmont Hills construction (Those who think tourists are angry at the changes at Stonington haven?t heard anything yet until the alteration of cherished, well-remembered, shoreline views near Newstead are understood!) irreparable mistakes can be made if each such project is considered individually without being placed comfortably into the framework of the whole. In this regard, the severe overcrowding on the Hamilton waterfront and decisions concerning deepening port entrances cannot be ignored forever.

In a number of areas the general planning being called for already is taking place.

The fast ferries have been a success beyond many peoples? estimation ? certainly mine. The aftermath of Hurricane Fabian demonstrated their potential for easing transportation infrastructure demands. Similarly, top hotel developers, current and prospective, have demonstrated their confidence in the long run viability of Bermuda tourism. The seminars being carried out by the Bermuda Industrial Union and the Foundation for Bermuda Studies, heeding Premier Scott?s call for full study of the Independence issue should be most helpful. Attempts to benefit from current upheaval in the airline and cruise ship industries also have been well-placed. For too long, Bermuda has been a punching bag absorbing greed-induced blows from those in those industries who care little or nothing about the welfare of the islands being invaded. Hopefully, plans for affordable housing in Bermuda soon will join those areas which complement, not hinder, comprehensive general planning for the Island?s future.Frank J. Parker is Professor of Real Estate in the Wallace E. Carroll Graduate School of Management at Boston College and also teaches a course there entitled ?Doing Business in Bermuda?. He was a consultant to the Bermuda Government on closing the US Naval Base and can be reached in Boston at frankatlanticadvisorygroup.com.