The recent spate of violence in the community - an armed robbery in Pembroke, a man breaking into West Pembroke School, alleged gun shots heard in Somerset - is worrying.

It is far from clear whether the timing of these events is coincidence or if it is a sign that violent crime is on the increase.

There are, however, reasons to expect an increase in crime and it is important for the community to be on the alert.

The economy is weak, if it is not already in recession, and those who will feel the worst of it are those who can least afford it; it is a truism that in those circumstances, crime increases.

Furthermore, Christmas is coming and this can also make people desperate.

Finally, the summer cruise ship season is well and truly over and it stands to reason that the drug supply will also shrink. That means that people are more likely to break into houses or to commit robberies in order to feed their habits.

If Bermuda is lucky, these events will prove to be coincidence and the Island will enjoy a quiet Christmas.

But people would be wise to follow the advice of the Police in yesterday's Royal Gazette and make sure their homes and businesses are secure and they would also be sensible to keep an eye out for suspicious behaviour.

Those considering committing crimes should think twice. It will not be worth it.